This Addendum has been prepared to supplement the June 2024 Market Position Statement (MPS).

This document summarises updated supply and demand information for the Gateshead area and is intended to signal opportunities in the specialist housing sector, both in housing for older people and supported housing for people with a wide range of care and support needs.

The Gateshead area offers several significant advantages when developing new provision of all types. There are a range of affordable and available land/properties across the borough, supported by an excellent Council Planning function and a commitment to support new developments, refurbishments or remodelling of existing provision.

The current financial climate is challenging and is not anticipated to significantly improve in the medium term. The Council cannot solely deliver the required solutions to people requiring care and support without an informed and thriving market in its area. Effective, honest and open relationships between the Council and service providers, from all sectors and of all sizes is therefore essential. This not only leads to better outcomes for our population, but offers people genuine choice and control as to their accommodation, care and support solutions.

Working in partnership with providers, considering them as key components of the wider integrated health and care system is a fundamental principle of the Council's approach. The Council actively encourages regular and proactive dialogue and welcomes new ideas or proposals.

This Addendum is relevant to housing provision for:

• Older people
• People aged 18-64 with needs arising from:
  • Learning disabilities
  • Autism
  • Mental ill-health
  • Physical disabilities

In due course the existing June 2024 MPS will be updated, at which time the information contained in this document will be updated and incorporated into it, along with feedback from providers.

Figure 2a below shows the current and projected numbers of people in age groups between 0 to 64, based on the latest available NOMIS forecasts.

Notable changes forecast for the period between 2025 and 2043 shown in figure 2a are:

• • A 10.6% fall in the numbers of people aged 50 to 64 (4,153 fewer people) over the medium term to 2035, which then moderates to a 5.9% fall by 2043
• The 25 to 49 age group is the only one expected to grow and even then by just 1.0% by 2043 

While the forecasts show reductions for three of the age groups over the 2025 - 2043 period, the largest reduction is forecast to be in the number of people aged 50 to 64. This group exhibits the greatest variation due to it no longer including the peak population numbers of the Baby Boomer generation (born between 1945 and 1964).

Figure 2b below shows the forecast changes among the population aged 65 and over between 2025 and 2043.

Notable changes forecast for the period between 2025 and 2043 shown in figure B1b are:

• A 13.9% increase in the numbers of people aged 65 and over (5,900 more)
• A 29.8% increase in the numbers of people aged 75 and over (6,327 more)
• A 42.8% increase in the numbers of people aged 85 and over (2,525 more)

Figure 2b shows large increases among all of the older age groups which will generate demand for new and additional provision, extending across specialist forms of housing such as Extra Care, beds in registered Care and Nursing homes, and services to support people in later life.

The local demand for services will be affected by both the number of older people in any given ward & the local age distribution, the five wards with the greatest numbers of people aged 65 and older at the time of the 2021 census were:

1. Whickham South and Sunniside - 2,354 people, 28.8% of the ward population
2. Winlaton and High Spen - 2,259 people, 26.5% of the ward population
3. Whickham North - 1,973 people, 25.5% of the ward population
4. Chopwell and Rowlands GIll - 2,197 people, 24.9% of the ward population
5. Wardley and Leam Lane - 1,882 people, 24.0% of the ward population

The 2021 census recorded that people who had identified as BAME made up 6.64% of the overall population of Gateshead and it is likely that this will lead to increasing numbers of older BAME residents over time.

However, at present the district has an exceptionally low proportion of BAME older people, representing just 0.6% of those aged 65 and over in Gateshead. Given this very low percentage and the diversity within the BAME residents it is unlikely that provision for any BAME specific needs could be sustained in the district.

Notwithstanding the above, where any part of the community identifies an unmet need there should be separate analysis to identify potential options for meeting that specific requirement. BAME and faith groups may well be able to support types and scales of provision that the public sector could not, while still needing guidance and access to resources in order to plan, fund and deliver their own services.

There is currently no 2021 census data available regarding the tenure distribution of households led by people aged 65 and over. It has therefore been necessary to use 2011 census data, which is shown in figure 4a below.

In this case, the proportion of owner occupiers in older person led households is well below average, with a corresponding high proportion of older social tenants. Figure 4a shows how the distribution of tenures in later life shifts away from ownership and into renting. This can arise due to changes in both the priorities and the health and financial circumstances of older people.

Note that, despite its low incidence in the current tenure distribution shown in figure 4a, private rent is considered to be an increasingly attractive and suitable tenure for older people who either wish to release their housing equity when they move into specialist housing or who have insufficient equity to purchase a unit outright.

Including private rent in the tenure offer of new housing for older people would widen the appeal of developments and maximise the take up rate within their catchment areas, particularly if this tenure could be offered to existing owner occupiers as a 'tenure switch' alternative to conventional equity release financial products.

Every Gateshead ward currently has some age restricted housing stock. The following figure 5a shows how the provision in each ward relates to the population aged 65 and over, (* the lower this number, the better the ratio between this housing provision and the older population).

While Gateshead has a considerable stock of age restricted housing which has most recently been increased through new Extra Care Housing, this stock is predominantly of units for social rent and there remains an under supply of units for owner occupation, shared ownership and private / market rent, plus questions of how well the older social rent stock meets the needs and preferences of those now entering later life.

When considering proposals for new housing provision for older people, the Council supports further growth in the supply of Extra Care Housing, due to its high functionality, rather than development based on the low functionality Sheltered Housing and Retirement Housing models.

The Council's objectives for age restricted housing are therefore to:

• Advertise and promote the capabilities of Extra Care Housing to health and care professionals and the wider population, to ensure ECH provision is better understood and the existing capacity is fully utilised
• Actively monitor council funded placements in Extra Care Housing to avoid schemes becoming dominated by higher needs residents, some of whom may be more appropriately and cost effectively supported in a Residential Care setting, or used inappropriately for needs that are potentially disruptive to other residents (for example - substance abuse)
• Increase the proportion of higher functionality Extra Care Housing within the overall stock of age restricted housing 
• Widen access to Extra Care Housing through an increase in the number of units for owner occupation, shared ownership and private / market rent, either directly or through development partnerships, to more closely reflect the tenure mix of older households in the district 
• Identify and replace, or repurpose, existing age restricted stock that is no longer fit for purpose 
• Target development to even out the geographical distribution of provision across the district (refer to figure 5a) 
• Combine and co-locate new age restricted housing provision with relevant facilities and amenities for older people, such as the Sister Winifred Laver Promoting Independence Centre
• Incorporate provision for older people into regeneration initiatives to avoid the dispersal of existing multi-generational communities

The existing supported housing stock is distributed unevenly across the district and three wards contain no provision of this type: Crawcrook and Greenside; Pelaw and Heworth; & Wardley and Leam Lane.

Figure 7a below shows the available capacity in each ward and the ratio of ward population aged 16 to 64 to supported housing capacity, (* the lower this number, the better the ratio between capacity and population). 

While the numbers of those with care and health needs in the age group between 16 and 64 are forecast to remain similar in the period to 2040, their expectations and lifestyles are different to those of older generations and there will still be changes in their needs as they age.

The range of needs that supported housing residents may have are even more variable and extensive than those of older people and, given that the scale of provision is much smaller than that for older people, planning new supply should be driven by commissioners based on known current gaps and shortfalls in provision, rather than being led by population derived forecasts.

The council's objectives for supported housing are therefore to:

• Replace existing stock where it is incapable of fully meeting its intended residents' care and health needs and preferences
• Continue to develop relatively small schemes (of up to 12 units) as the most appropriate for care ad health needs of those in the 16-64 age group, rather than combining multiple needs into larger schemes where operational difficulties are more likely to occur
• Actively review Out of Boundary (OOB) cases to identify where their needs could be met appropriately and cost effectively within the district 
• Target development to even out the geographical distribution of provision across the district (refer to figure 7a)

Note that in meeting the above objectives the co-location of multiple forms of specialist housing provision on one site may well not achieve a satisfactory living environment due to the diversity of residents' needs. Co-location will only be considered where there is a demonstrable benefit to residents and the risk of incompatible expectations and behaviours can be reduced to an acceptable level.