Specialist and Supported Housing Needs Assessment

The scope of this specialist housing and supported housing needs assessment includes:

• Older people (55+ years).
• Adults with a learning disability/on the autistic spectrum, including young people 'transitioning' to adult services.
• Adults with mental health needs.
• Adults with physical disabilities/long term conditions.
• Individuals at risk of or recovering from homelessness, including:
  • Single homeless individuals, including offenders/ex-offenders, people recovering from drug/alcohol dependency, people with multiple/complex needs.
  • Vulnerable people subject to or fleeing domestic abuse.
  • Vulnerable young people.
  • Refugees, including unaccompanied older children/asylum seeking children.
  • Adults who have served in the armed forces.

Whilst the assessment is shown in relation to 'client cohorts', it is recognised that people's needs are often complex and that innovative approaches to housing and support that go beyond these 'cohort' definitions will be required and are indeed desirable.

Estimated need for specialist housing and accommodation: older people

Housing for older people (retirement housing for sale and for social/affordable rent). The estimated housing for older people net need to 2040 is approximately 670 homes of which approximately 270 homes are estimated to be required for social/affordable rent and approximately 400 are estimated to be required for shared ownership/sale.

Housing with care (extra care housing). The estimated housing with care net need to 2040 is approximately 435 homes of which approximately 305 homes are estimated to be required for social / affordable rent and approximately 130 homes are estimated to be required for shared ownership/sale.

Residential care and nursing care. The estimated residential care net need is not anticipated to increase significantly over the period to 2040. It is likely that residential care bed capacity will need to be increasingly focussed on older people with more complex social care needs, such as people living with dementia. The estimated nursing care net need to 2040 is approximately 230 bedspaces. It is likely that nursing care bed capacity will need to be increasingly focussed on older people with more complex health and social care needs, including people living with dementia.

Estimated need for supported accommodation: Adults with learning disability/autistic people

In summary, an additional circa 90 units of supported accommodation are estimated to be needed by 2030 for people with a learning disability/autistic people and an additional c.215 units by 2040.

Of these additional circa 215 units, circa 25 units are estimated to be for Shared Lives accommodation and c.190 units are estimated to be for supported housing.

Estimated need for supported housing: Adults with significant mental health needs

There is an estimated net need for circa 30 units of additional supported housing for people with significant mental health needs by 2030 and circa 65 units of additional supported housing by 2040.

Estimated need for accessible housing: Adults with physical disabilities

In summary, by 2040, it is estimated that there will be circa 675 wheelchair users with an unmet need for accessible housing, of which:

• It is estimated that circa 255 wheelchair users require fully wheelchair adapted homes, for example, similar to Part M(4) Category 3 broadly equivalent to the Wheelchair Housing Design standard.
• This is the equivalent of a need for circa 15 fully wheelchair-adapted homes required per year to 2040 for the all-age population.
• Among the working-age population, this is the equivalent of a need for circa 6 fully wheelchair-adapted homes required per year to 2040.
• It is estimated that circa 420 wheelchair users require accessible and adaptable homes (for example, not fully wheelchair adapted dwellings), similar to Part M(4) Category 2, broadly equivalent to the Lifetime Homes standard.
• This is the equivalent of a need for circa 25 accessible and adaptable homes required per year to 2040, for the all-age population.
• For the working age population, this is the equivalent of a need for circa 10 accessible and adaptable homes required per year to 2040.

Supported housing for people at risk of or recovering from homelessness

Domestic abuse

Based on analysis of Campbell Tickell's proposals, it is considered that 26 units of additional supported housing are required (2023).

Homelessness and multiple complex needs

Based on analysis of Campbell Tickell's proposals, it is considered that 35 units of additional supported housing are required (2023).

Young people

Based on analysis of Campbell Tickell's proposals, it is considered that 38 units of additional supported accommodation are required (2023).

In addition, in relation to children and young people:

• There is evidence suggests of a need for circa 30 home adaptations per annum for children under 17 years with a disability.
• There is a potential need for additional children's home/residential care provision capacity of circa 14 units required in Gateshead as at 2023 to 2024.

Other identified needs for supported and accessible housing

People who have served in HM armed forces/adult former asylum seekers

It is assumed that the need for supported housing of these relatively small cohorts of people could be met through existing supported housing provision for people who are or have experienced homelessness and/or through the planned commissioning of additional supported housing capacity for people who have experienced homelessness.

1. This is a report of research undertaken by the Housing Learning and Improvement Network (LIN)^[1] based on a brief from Gateshead Council (GC) to undertake a Specialist and Supported Housing Needs Assessment.
2. GC has commissioned the Housing LIN to undertake an assessment the future need, over the next 10 to 20 years, for specialist and supported housing and accommodation.
3. The scope of this specialist housing and supported housing needs assessment includes:

• Older people (55+ years).
• Adults with a learning disability/on the autistic spectrum, including young people 'transitioning' to adult services.
• Adults with mental health needs.
• Adults with physical disabilities/long term conditions.
• Individuals at risk of or recovering from homelessness, including:
  • Single homeless individuals, including offenders/ex-offenders, people recovering from drug/alcohol dependency, and people with multiple/complex needs.
  • Vulnerable people subject to or fleeing domestic abuse.
  • Vulnerable young people (such as care leavers).
  • Refugees, including unaccompanied older children/asylum seeking children.
  • Adults who have served in the armed forces.

    4. Work undertaken by consultancy Campbell Tickell in relation to the 'cohorts' above at risk of or recovering from homelessness has been reviewed and used as appropriate to identify need for specialist and supported housing.

    5. Whilst the assessment is shown in relati6.on to 'client cohorts', it is recognised that people's needs are often complex and that innovative approaches to housing and support that go beyond these 'cohort' definitions will be required and indeed desirable:

• An assumption that mainstream housing suitably designed and/or adapted will be appropriate for many people with care and/or support needs.
• Opportunities for inter-generational living will form part of the required housing solutions.
• Housing solutions may be multi-functional, for example, providing a mix of mainstream housing, supported housing and potentially other facilities.
• All housing and supported accommodation for people with care and/or support needs should assist and facilitate inclusion in community life.

    6. GC wishes to use this evidence base to inform its supported housing strategy and its other housing, planning, social care, investment and delivery plans. The council's objective is to support people with care/support needs to live independently in their homes through having a range of specialist and supported housing options available which enables this to happen.

Approach and method

1. This specialist and supported housing need assessment covers a range of housing and accommodation types for all ages and needs including specialist housing for older people (for example, retirement housing for sale, 'sheltered housing' and extra care housing), residential and nursing care, supported housing, accessible housing and Shared Lives. Where appropriate estimates of housing need are indicated for different tenure types.
2. Where the size of the relevant cohort populations permits, estimates of future housing and supported housing need are shown at Gateshead level and by locations within the borough (Central, West, East, South and Inner West).
3. Qualitative evidence from a sample of local citizens, voluntary and community organisations, housing providers and Council Officers has been used to inform estimates of housing and supported housing need.
4. A range of national and local quantitative evidence, as well as evidence from local policies has been used to inform estimates of need for specialist and supported housing including:

• National and local health, social care and housing data sets
• Current population data for the relevant cohorts
• ONS Census data and other ONS demographic data as relevant
• Gateshead Joint Strategic Needs Assessment
• Gateshead Social Care Market Position Statement
• Gateshead Health and Wellbeing Strategy
• Gateshead Housing Strategy
• Gateshead Specialist and Supported Supplementary Planning Document
• The Council's Our Statutory Homelessness Review
• Gateshead Homelessness and Rough Sleeping Strategy

1. This assessment is intended to identify the specialist housing and accommodation needs of older people, some of whom will also have care/support needs. This assessment of need includes estimated need for specialist housing for older people, such as retirement housing, 'sheltered' housing, extra care housing, and residential and nursing care provision.
2. The assessment of need for specialist housing and accommodation for older people draws on a range of evidence, including:

• demographic context
• health and care context
• current provision of specialist housing and accommodation for older people
• socio-economic context
• local strategic evidence and local commissioner perspectives and intelligence
• the perspectives of older people and other stakeholders.

Contextual evidence: housing and accommodation for older people in Gateshead 

Demographic context

1. To produce an overview of the change in the older population in Gateshead, estimates for the 55+, 65+ and 75+ populations are used.
2. In order to produce demographic projections the following datasets have been used:

• ONS Mid-2020 Population Estimates for Census Output Areas in the North East region of England. (ONS Mid-2020 Population Estimates for Census Output Areas in the North East region of England by Single Year of Age and Sex -  Supporting Information; Table SAPE23DT10d.) This has been used to generate population estimates at ward level.
• ONS 2021 census population estimates. (ONS P02 Census 2021: Usual resident population by five-year age group, local authorities in England and Wales) The 2021 census population estimates have been used to provide an up-to-date estimate of the older population living in Gateshead.
• ONS 2018-based subnational projections for England. (ONS 2018-based Subnational Population Projections for England; released in 2020) This has been used to estimate the projected growth of the populations, at ward and borough-level, projected to 2040.
• This data is used to identify the current age distribution of the older population in Gateshead and to identify trends in the older population. It is also used as a basis for the estimation of net housing and accommodation need for older people in Gateshead to 2040. Table 1 shows the projected population at 55+, 65+ and 75+ for Gateshead to 2040, and table 2 shows the percentage change in these population cohorts to 2040.

Table 1. 55+, 65+ and 75+ population for Gateshead to 2040.

Source: ONS 2021 census and ONS 2018-based subnational population projections

1. Table 1 shows that both the 65+ and 75+ population cohorts are projected to increase to a greater extent than the overall 55+ population. This is significant because the 65+ and 75+ population cohorts are more likely to need specialist housing and accommodation.

Table 2. Percentage change in the 55+, 65+ and 75+ population for Gateshead to 2040.

Source: ONS 2021 census and ONS 2018, based subnational population projections

1. Table 2 shows the most significant growth is in the 75+ population in Gateshead, compared to the 55+ and 65+ populations. However, both the 65+ and the75+ population cohorts are projected to grow at a significantly higher rate than the 55+ population to 2040.
2. The estimation of housing / accommodation need shown later in this section is based on the projected growth of the 65+ population and the 75+ population cohorts which have been selected, based on previous research carried out by the Housing LIN indicating that these are the most likely population cohorts to need and to move to specialist housing and accommodation designated for older people.
3. To provide local context to the projected change in the 55+, 65+ and 75+ populations for Gateshead, changes in the same population cohorts are shown at Annexe 1 in relation to other councils in the north east of England region.
4. Using 2018-based ONS Subnational Population Projections data (ONS 2018-based Household Population Projections for England: detailed data for modelling and analysis - principal projections.), the older populations for Gateshead and other councils in the north east have been projected for the years 2023, 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. The tables in Annexe 1 show the population projections for Gateshead and other councils in the north east up to 2040 for the 55+, 65+ and 75+populations respectively.

Health and care context

1. Gateshead's average life expectancy at birth is 79.5 years, Public Health England (opens new window), which is higher than the North East regional average life expectancy of 78.9 years, but below the average life expectancy for England of 81.5 years (ONS: 2020 National life tables - England).
2. The demand for residential and nursing care is partly influenced by the local prevalence of dementia amongst the older population, as well as by other health and care needs. Table 3 shows the prevalence of dementia in Gateshead.

Table 3. Number of people 65+ with dementia and dementia prevalence as a percentage of the total 65+ population (2020).

Source: NHS Digital, Recorded Dementia Diagnoses publications

1. Note that the figures for projected number of people 65+ with dementia in 2040 is based on projected growth rates from Wittenberg et al (2019). (Projections of older people with dementia and costs of dementia care in the United Kingdom, 2019 to 2040; Care Policy and Evaluation Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science)
2. The current prevalence of dementia among the 65+ population (6.1%) in Gateshead is higher than both the North East average (4.09%) and the English average prevalence (3.97%).

Table 4. Prevalence of dementia in Gateshead and north east region local authorities (2022).

Source: Gateshead Council

1. Table 4 shows that Gateshead has the highest rate of dementia amongst people aged 65+ in the north east (as at 2022).

Specialised housing and accommodation for older people

1. Data from the Elderly Accommodation Counsel's (EAC) housing data (Q4 2019) national database of older people's housing provision was reviewed to confirm the current supply in Gateshead. This includes social and private sector housing for older people.

2. The following definitions of older people's housing and accommodation are used to describe the different types of housing and accommodation for older people:
3. Housing for Older People (HfOP) Housing Care glossary (opens new window): social housing sector retirement housing and age-designated housing for affordable rent and private sector retirement housing for sale. The most common types of Housing for Older People are:

• ssheltered housing for social/affordable rent: These schemes typically offer self-contained accommodation commonly available for social rent. They are usually supported by a part-time/visiting scheme manager and 24-hour emergency help via an alarm. There are often communal areas and some offer activities. Most accommodation is offered for social or affordable rent, based on need, by local councils or housing associations.
• private sector retirement housing: This is typically similar to sheltered social housing, but it is usually built by private developers for market sale. Once all the properties have been sold, the scheme is sometimes run by a separate management company that employ a scheme manager and organise maintenance and other services.

   4.Housing with care (HwC) (Housing LIN - what is extra care (opens new window)): (often referred to as 'extra care housing' when provided by housing associations and local authorities and 'assisted living' by private sector providers). Housing with care is designed for older people, some with higher levels of care and support needs. Residents live in self-contained homes. It typically has more communal facilities and offers access to onsite 24/7 care services, which includes assistance with meal preparation, washing and other daily duties. Often includes a 24/7 alarm system, presence of a scheme manager and a team of support staff.

5. Residential care home (NHS care homes (opens new window)): a residential setting where a number of older people live, usually in single rooms, and have access to on-site social care services. 24/7 onsite personal social care services include help with washing and dressing. Residential care homes do not consist of self-contained units.

6. Nursing care home (NHS care homes (opens new window)): similar to a residential care home, but additionally providing care from qualified nurses. There will always be one or more qualified nurses on duty to provide nursing care. These are sometimes called 'care homes with nursing'. The Care Quality Commission states that in addition (to a residential care home), "qualified nursing care is provided, to ensure that the full needs of the person using the service are met." Nursing care homes do not consist of self-contained units.

7. The following table shows the current provision of housing for older people and housing with care in Gateshead compared to other north east region local authorities. The purpose of this comparison is to place the current provision of specialist and supported accommodation for older people in Gateshead into a regional context, for example, how the current provision of these types of accommodation in Gateshead compares to other local authorities in the north east.

Table 5. Housing for Older People (HfOP) and Housing with Care (HwC) in Gateshead and north east local authorities. Number of units.

Source: Elderly Accommodation Counsel (2019)

Note that prev. denotes prevalence rate - the number of units per 1,000 population aged 65+ (for HfOP) and 75+ (for HwC)

*Affordable and social rent

1. Gateshead's prevalence of housing for older people is below the North East comparator average prevalence, however, it is above the English prevalence.
2. With respect to housing with care, Gateshead's prevalence is below the North East comparator average, however it is higher than the English average prevalence.
3. Further details about the supply of Housing for Older People and Housing with Care is shown in Annexe 2 including quantity of units, provider, tenure and location.
4. Table 6 below shows the how specialist housing provision for older people is distributed across the five neighbourhood areas in Gateshead.

Table 6. Specialised housing for older people provision (units) by tenure and neighbourhood within Gateshead.

Source: Elderly Accommodation Counsel

Table 7. Current provision of residential and nursing care beds in Gateshead and north east local authorities

Source: Gateshead Council/Care Quality Commission (2022)

1. Table 7 shows the shows the current provision of residential care and nursing care in Gateshead compared to other north east region local authorities. It should be noted that local intelligence from Gateshead commissioners is that residential and nursing care beds can be used flexibly to meet the changing needs of older people (i.e. at any given time, for example, the beds in use as residential and nursing may be different to the figures in table 7). The prevalence of residential care in Gateshead is above both the North East comparator average and the England prevalence rate.
2. With respect to nursing care Gateshead's prevalence rate is significantly below both the North East comparator average and the English average prevalence rate.

Socio-economic context

1. At the most recent census, home ownership among 65+ households in Gateshead was 65.6% (Office for National Statistics / Nomis (2011 census). Tenure by occupation by age - Household Reference Persons. Nomis Table DC4604EW (released in 2013).), which is significantly below the equivalent English home ownership rate of 80%. The table below shows the tenure distribution in Gateshead amongst 65+ households.

Table 8. Tenure for 65+ households in Gateshead.

Source: ONS/Nomis 2011 census

1. The Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (IDAOPI) (Local Government Association: LG inform IDAOPI score (opens new window) - based on data from MHCLG) score is a measurement of people aged 60+ living in relative poverty; a higher score for a local authority implies a higher level of relative poverty.
2. Gateshead's IDAOPI score is 19.4% and it is ranked sixth most deprived out of north east region local authorities. The comparison between Gateshead's IDAOPI and other local authorities in the north east is shown in table 9 below.

Table 9. IDAOPI score for Gateshead and north east local authorities, ordered from least deprived to most deprived authorities.

Source: DLUHC (2019; updated in 2022)

1. In comparison to the English average deprivation (IDAOPI) amongst older people, Gateshead is relatively more deprived compared with the English average level of deprivation of 14.2%.

Local strategic evidence and intelligence

Housing strategy (PDF, 815 KB) A key objective under the category 'Housing Supply' in the council's Housing Strategy is: 

"Securing the right mix of housing (tenure and type) in the right locations, to meet population projections, support independent living of older people, disabled and vulnerable residents, and deliver our targets for sustainable economic and housing growth"

The Housing Strategy also states a need for:

"A range of aspirational and affordable mainstream homes that provide for our growing older population, and households that include people with disabilities, that will allow them to live independently and cost effectively for longer."

Specialist and Supported Housing: Supplementary Planning document

The Specialist and Supported Housing: Supplementary Planning Document  (Image, 97 KB) states:

"In identifying the requirement for extra care, the council is seeking to ensure there is sufficient to reduce demand on higher cost services whilst avoiding oversupply that could destabilise the market."

"The council is seeking to reduce reliance on residential nursing and care homes by ensuring a sufficient supply of alternative support and supported accommodation."

"Having a range and sufficiency of this form of accommodation [Independent supported living for example, Sheltered, Promoting Independence, Respite] is important in reducing over-reliance on residential and nursing homes, reducing pressures on the number of very high-cost home care packages."

Market Position Statement

The Council's Market Position Statement (MPS) states: 

"The demand on Older Person's services has been increasing year on year due to the increase in life expectancy and the number of people diagnosed with dementia. The council's approach is to increase resources in enablement and preventative services to reduce future demand on long term statutory services in the next 3 years. It is expected the number of older people who are eligible for long term services will decrease with an increase in the number accessing low level support."

The MPS states a number of commissioning statements, which include:

"To reduce the number of long term general residential care placements"

"To maximise the use of reablement to minimise the need for long term home care packages"

"To support new extra care developments across the borough."

"To increase our Shared Lives provision for older people as an alternative to building based respite provision"

It additionally states that the market opportunities are:

"Planning of up to 3 new extra care services in the borough which will include those with dementia needs to be in operation by 2025"

Perspectives of older people and other stakeholders

1.The evidence regarding the housing perspectives of older people has been drawn from:

• a sample of local older people
• local community organisations such as Age UK
• local providers of Housing for Older People and Housing with Care such as Home Group, JJH, Thirteen Anchor, Karbon.

2. The evidence from these sources is summarised below.

3. Older people are seeking housing options that enable them to live independently for as long as possible.

4. Older people are a diverse group with different views, experiences and opportunities about where they might live in later life. The range of housing types available needs to reflect this diversity.

5. The majority of older people would prefer to remain living in their existing homes than move to specialist accommodation. People are seeking support to remain living where they are now such as with adaptations, aids, technology to support independence as well as care/support staff.

6. There is currently a crisis in relation to recruiting and retaining the care workforce which is likely to limit the specialist housing and accommodation options for older people.

7. However, some older people are interested in and willing to 'rightsize/downsize' provided that an alternative home is sufficiently attractive and meets their requirements.

8. People are seeking properties that:

• adapt to their changing needs across the life-course
• provide good quality, affordable accommodation with less maintenance and upkeep requirements
• provide spacious, modern accommodation with a good sense of community

9. Moving to properties with an age-designation is a 'marmite issue'; for some people it is their preference whereas others would prefer to live in a mixed-age community.

10. The majority of people would prefer a property with 2 bedrooms although 1 bedroom is preferred by others.

11. More people are likely to consider moving to specialist accommodation if it is affordable, aspirational and accessible and meets the requirements at 2.47.

12. The majority of existing sheltered housing in Gateshead is not attractive enough to encourage people to consider moving before they need it. Existing sheltered housing typically lacks well designed communal spaces that are attractive and that have the flexibility to be used for a variety of purposes

13. A local example of best practice in relation to contemporary housing for older people is Home Group's Watergate Court. Many research participants see this as an attractive place to live although affordability is a concern for some. This housing scheme has a variety of communal spaces that are ergonomically designed with communal areas being used for multiple purposes, including the use of different colour schemes and flooring, and appropriately designed and attractive seating, to maximise the flexibility and use of these communal areas.

14. Older people are seeking better access to information and advice about their housing and support options. People need help to weigh up the cost implications of moving and to understand what options are available to them. The majority of people would prefer to use offline for example, in person methods of communication.

15. The evidence of need based on Registered Provider and other housing provider insights is:

• There is a need for flexible housing with care models that enable people to transition easily should they need care; for example Watergate Court extra care housing scheme which includes a dementia 'wing'.
• There is considerable interest amongst RPs in developing new older person's accommodation that is attractive and 'aspirational'. There is interest in a dialogue with the council about different housing models that are suited to older people.
• There is a recognition that older sheltered stock will need to be reviewed and updated where this is feasible and cost effective in order to provide a more contemporary housing offer.
• Registered Providers are seeking a dialogue with the council in relation to the impact of the analogue to digital switch over in 2025 and how technology can better support the independence of older customers.

16. The evidence of need based on commissioner insights is:

• There is a need for an increased range of choices for older people, including modern age designated housing without care and large communal facilities but there is also a need for further provision of extra care housing.
• There is a need to improve existing sheltered housing so that it provides a contemporary offer that is more fit for purpose.
• There is a need for shared agreements with neighbouring local authorities about movement across local authority boundaries for specialist housing.

Approach: considerations and assumptions

1. The contextual evidence and assumptions set out in paragraphs 2.56 to 2.72 are used as a basis for estimating need for specialist housing and accommodation for older people in Gateshead to 2040.
2. Data about the existing supply of older people's designated housing and accommodation in Gateshead is used as a baseline of current provision. This data is drawn from the Elderly Accommodation Counsel (EAC) and the Care Quality Commission (CQC). This research did not include a qualitative assessment of any of this specialised housing/accommodation, for example existing 'sheltered housing', therefore no assumptions are made about its future 'fitness for purpose'.
3. ONS 2021 census (ONS P02 Census 2021: Usual resident population by five-year age group, local authorities in England and Wales) and 2018, based population projections data are used to identify relevant older populations in Gateshead. (ONS 2018-based household projections for England: detailed data for modelling and analysis). Based on evidence from our advisory work with housing providers and local authorities in relation to specialised housing and accommodation for older people, the following population bases are used for estimating future need for housing and accommodation for older people, reflecting the typical ages of moves to these types of specialist housing and accommodation:

• The 75+ population as the average age benchmark in relation to the need for housing with care (extra care housing), residential care and nursing care.
• The 65+ population as the average age benchmark in relation to the need for housing for older people (retirement housing for affordable rent and for sale).

4. Approximately 65% of households headed by a person aged 65+ in Gateshead are homeowners (table 8). In comparison to local authorities in the north east Gateshead has a median level of relative deprivation amongst the 60+ population based on comparison of the IDAOPI score (paragraph 2.31). We have used this evidence to inform assumptions regarding the tenure breakdown of need for specialist housing amongst older people. Given this evidence estimates of future need are assumed to require around 60% for shared ownership/sale and approximately 40% for social/affordable rent for housing for older people (retirement housing for sale/shared ownership and for affordable rent), however the actual tenure split for new development of specialist housing for older people will be dependent on the socio-economic profile of a locality.

5. In relation to housing with care (extra care housing), given residents will typically have a care/support need as well as a housing need and the council's policy to commission additional extra care housing, including as a direct alternative to residential care for older people eligible for local authority funded care, a tenure split of 70% affordable rent and 30% shared ownership/sale has been assumed.

6.In terms of the health and care profile of the older population in Gateshead evidence indicates that average life expectancy is slightly higher than the average for the North East region, however it is below the England average. The number of people aged 65+ with dementia is projected to increase in Gateshead by 2040. The increasing incidence of dementia is a factor affecting likely need for extra care housing and care home beds.

7. Based on the Housing LIN's previous experience of local authority commissioning and placement funding practice and the views and experience of Gateshead Council commissioners, it is reasonable to assume that up to 20% of placements into residential care could be substituted with living in housing with care (extra care housing). Gateshead Council commissioners estimate that 78 older people placed in care homes could potentially have move to extra care housing as an alternative.

8. Evidence in relation to the preferences of older people to move such as, 'downsizing'/'rightsizing') to types of housing/accommodation designated for older people is an influencing factor in estimating need for housing/accommodation; the Housing LIN has drawn on qualitative (Housing LIN qualitative research with over 1000 older people: focus groups, 1:1 interviews and residents' forums consulted in order to obtain the views of older people with respect to their preferences and needs related to specialist housing, adaptations and later life.) and quantitative research it has conducted with people aged 65+ over the last five years (Housing LIN quantitative research: approximately 1500 survey responses completed by people aged over-60 about their preferences for specialist housing and accommodation for older people.) across England, including with older people in Gateshead. In summary this evidence indicates:

9. Older people are seeking wider choices in the range of housing and accommodation options that will facilitate independent living. Including, for example, level access homes such as bungalows. In some cases, this will be a move to alternative accommodation and for others this is about adapting their current home or bringing in care/support if this is required.

10. Based on the Housing LIN's research, about 25 to 30% of older people aged 65+ are potentially interested in and willing to 'downsize'/'rightsize' and move to specialised housing and accommodation for older people. This evidence from the Housing LIN's research with older people indicates that approximately:

• 50% are interested in moving to a form of specialist age-designated housing (HfOP and HwC), primarily retirement housing (for sale) and modern sheltered housing (for social/affordable rent), followed by housing with care (extra care housing).
• 50% are interested in moving to 'age friendly' housing that meets age related needs but is not age-designated housing.

11. There is very limited interest in a move to residential care or nursing care as a choice of specialist accommodation; most moves to these types of accommodation are as a result of, for example, an acute health and/or care episode or crisis. This evidence is based on qualitative and quantitative research carried out by the Housing LIN, where participants typically only support a move to a care home where this is dictated by health-related needs.

12. A comparative analysis has been undertaken that compares the current supply or 'prevalence' of different types of housing and accommodation for older people (older people's housing for social/affordable rent, older people's retirement housing for sale, extra care housing for social/affordable rent and for sale, residential and nursing care) in Gateshead with other local authorities in the north east along with the all-England averages for supply of older people's housing and accommodation. This identifies how supply in Gateshead compares to other north east local authorities and across England generally. This is shown in the tables below.

Table 10. Prevalence rates (such as, the number of units per 1,000 population aged 65+) Housing for Older People in Gateshead, alongside the north east average and all-England prevalence rates. (2022 prevalence).

Source: EAC/Housing LIN 2022

Table 11. Prevalence rates (such as, the number of units per 1,000 people aged 75+) Housing with Care in Gateshead, alongside the north east average and all-England prevalence rates. (2022 prevalence).

Source: EAC/Housing LIN 2022

Table 12. Prevalence rates (such as, the number of bedspaces per 1,000 population aged 75+) of residential and nursing care in Gateshead, alongside the north east average and all-England prevalence rates. (2022 prevalence).

Source: Care Quality Commission/Housing LIN 2022

13. The comparisons show that for:

• Housing for Older People, Gateshead's level of provision is below the North East comparator average, however, is higher than the English prevalence rate.
• Housing with Care, Gateshead's level of provision is in line with the North East average prevalence, however slightly higher than the English prevalence rate.
• residential care, Gateshead is slightly higher than the North East average prevalence and higher than the English prevalence rate.
• nursing care, Gateshead is significantly below both the North East average and the English prevalence rate.

14. In relation to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, any assumptions based on emerging evidence are tentative given that the impact of the pandemic on the specialist housing and accommodation sector for older people is not yet clear. At this stage considerations based on tentative evidence could suggest in the medium to longer term:

• There is potential for a downward shift in preference for use of residential care amongst older people.
• There is potential for a preference amongst older people for remaining in their existing home, with care if required.

15. However, in Gateshead in the short-term post pandemic, use of residential care has temporarily increased due to hospital discharge pressures and significant issues in recruiting and retaining social care staff to provide care to people in their own homes.

16. In relation to each of the types of housing and accommodation for older people, assumptions are summarised below:

Housing for Older People:

Need is likely to increase as a consequence of:

• an increase in the 65+ population;
• relative undersupply of housing for older people for shared ownership/sale compared with housing for older people for social/affordable rent;
• research conducted by the Housing LIN over the last five years with older people, including in Gateshead, which indicates an interest in moving to housing better suited to older people.

Housing with care:

Need is likely to increase as a consequence of:

• a significant increase in the 75+ population;
• council policy intent to offer extra care housing as an option for older people with care needs, including in place of residential care - the council's Market Position Statement states that the council's intends "to support new extra care developments across the borough";
• research conducted by the Housing LIN over the last five years with older people including in Gateshead, which indicates an interest in moving to housing better suited to older people;
• increasing prevalence of dementia related needs and other health/care needs amongst the 75+ population.

Residential care and nursing care

The council's Market Position Statement states that the council's "approach is to increase resources in enablement and preventative services to reduce future demand on long term statutory services in the next three years. It is expected the number of older people who are eligible for long term services to remain constant over the next three years due to the enablement and prevention", and "to reduce the number of long term general residential care placements ".

Whilst the 75+ population is increasing over the period to 2040, in this policy context need for residential care may flat line or potentially decrease, however the need for nursing care is likely to increase, as a consequence of:

• the potential for the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic to reduce demand in the longer term for residential care (particularly amongst local authority funded placements and self-funders for residential care);
• the unsuitability of some care homes to cater for people living with dementia and other complex care needs, care home capacity will need to be able to support older people with complex care and health needs;
• an increase in the demand for housing with care, in part due to council policy intent to offer extra care housing as an option for older people with care needs, particularly in place of residential care.
• however, the need for nursing care is likely to increase due to projected growth in the 75+ population and a commensurate increasing prevalence of dementia related needs and other complex health/care needs amongst the 75+ population.

Projections: estimates of future need for housing and accommodation for older people

Table 13 shows the anticipated likely need (prevalence rate) and the associated estimated need (units/bedspaces) for each type of housing and accommodation for older people:

• 2022 current provision. The number of units for that type of housing/accommodation, using data from the Elderly Accommodation Counsel and the Care Quality Commission about specialised housing and accommodation provision.
• 2022 prevalence rate. The prevalence rate, such as, the number of housing units/beds per 1,000 older people (Population 65+ for housing for older people; population 75+ for housing with care and residential/nursing care), based on population data from the ONS 2021 census and ONS 2018, based population projections. It is also based on data from the Elderly Accommodation Counsel's and Care Quality Commission's specialised housing/accommodation data (for units/beds).
• 2040 anticipated prevalence rate. An estimate of the likely need (prevalence rate) based on the considerations and assumptions that are set out above.
• 2040 estimated gross need. An estimate of the total number of units/bedspaces of housing and accommodation for older people that will be needed, based on estimated need (prevalence rates) for 2040 and the applicable projected 65+ or 75+ population for 2040.
• 2040 estimated net need. A calculation of the additional number of units/bedspaces that are estimated to be required by 2040, in order to meet the estimated need for that type of housing/accommodation. It is the 2040 estimated need minus the 2022 current provision.

Table 13. Current provision and estimated need for specialist housing and accommodation for older people, to 2040 in Gateshead.

Note. Figures may not sum due to rounding

The estimated gross need for housing and accommodation for older people is shown for 2023 (current need), 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040 in table 14. The estimated net need is shown in table 15, which shows the estimated need additional to the current supply. Net need is not cumulative.

Table 14. Estimated gross need for housing and accommodation for older people to 2040, in Gateshead.

The estimated net need for housing and accommodation for older people is shown disaggregated for 2023 (current net need), 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040 in table 15. This shows the estimated number of homes/bedspaces required to meet estimated need in 2023 and by 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. Net need is not cumulative. Estimated need for housing for older people and housing with care are shown by locality at Annexe 3.

Table 15. Estimated net need (such as, net of current supply) for housing and accommodation for older people to 2040 in Gateshead.

Note. Figures may not sum due to rounding

In summary, the estimated net need requirements for specialist housing and accommodation for older people for Gateshead by 2040, are shown in table 16.

Table 16. Housing and accommodation for older people, net estimated need to 2040, in Gateshead.

Housing for older people (retirement housing for sale and for social/affordable rent). The estimated housing for older people net need to 2040 is about 670 homes of which around 270 homes are estimated to be required for social/affordable rent and around 400 are estimated to be required for shared ownership/sale. Based on the qualitative evidence about older people's housing preferences (paragraph 2.62) it is assumed that potentially up to 50% of this estimated need could be met through the provision of mainstream housing that is designed for and accessible to older people even if it is not technically 'designated' for older people, for example housing that is 'care ready' and suited to ageing as distinct from 'retirement housing'. This may include mainstream housing to accessible and adaptable standards M4(2) and M4(3).

Housing with care (extra care housing). The estimated housing with care net need to 2040 is around 435 homes of which 305 homes are estimated to be required for social / affordable rent and about 130 homes are estimated to be required for shared ownership/sale. This will meet the housing and care needs of older people who are self-funders as well as older people who need rented accommodation and are eligible for social care funded by the council. This need could be met in part through mixed tenure development of extra care housing.

Residential care and nursing care. The estimated residential care net need is not anticipated to increase over the period to 2040. It is likely that residential care bed capacity will need to be increasingly focussed on older people with more complex social care needs, such as people living with dementia. The estimated nursing care net need to 2040 is approximately 230 bedspaces. It is likely that nursing care bed capacity will need to be increasingly focussed on older people with more complex health and social care needs, including people living with dementia. This is aligned with the council's integrated residential/nursing care delivery model.

1. The intention of this assessment is to identify the future supported accommodation needs of people with learning disability/autistic people.

2. The assessment of need for housing and supported accommodation draws on a range of evidence, including:

• demographic context: current population and projected population of people with learning disabilities/autistic people
• current provision of housing and supported accommodation
• evidence from people with learning disabilities/autistic people and other local stakeholders
• local policy context
• local commissioner perspectives and intelligence.

Establishing the population baseline

1. In order to identify the population trends in relation to people with a learning disability/autistic people that have social care needs, data provided by Gateshead Council has been used (Gateshead Council: Internally held data on number of individuals with a primary support reason as learning disability support), alongside data from the NHS Short- and Long-term Support (SALT) (NHS Digital: NHS short and long term support return for Gateshead 2021 to 2022 (opens new window); accessed via Adult Social Care Finance Return Data Pack) dataset and Gateshead's Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) (Gateshead Joint Strategic Needs Assessment: Information on the number of people with learning disabilities living in their own home or with family).
2. The number of adults aged 18+ with learning disability/autistic people in Gateshead is approximately 550 individuals (2020 to 2021), according to data from Gateshead Council and NHS SALT data. The housing/accommodation status of these 550 individuals is shown below.

Identifying the current housing/accommodation status and characteristics of the baseline population.

1. SALT data has also been used to provide data for the accommodation status for adults that have a learning disability/autistic people.
2. Table 17 shows the housing/accommodation status of the 550 individuals.

Table 17. Housing/accommodation status of baseline population.

Source: SALT 2020 to 2021 and Gateshead Council

1. Data regarding the number of people with mental health needs, people with learning disabilities and other working age adults with care needs living in care homes and in supported living (supported housing) has been provided by Gateshead Council commissioners.

2. This shows that the current supply of supported housing for people with learning disabilities/autistic people (174 housing units in total) is made up of:

• 150 units in 43 shared supported housing properties. 86% of supported housing for people with learning disabilities/autistic people is shared supported housing ranging in size from two people sharing to six people sharing a house.
• 24 units of self-contained supported housing in six schemes, which represents 14% of the supported housing for people with learning disabilities/autistic people. These are typically more recent supported housing developments.

3. 32 people are living on their own with a 1:1 24/7 support package. Some, but not all, of these individuals have high/complex support needs.

Evidence from people with learning disabilities/autistic people and other local stakeholders

The evidence regarding the housing perspectives of people with a learning disability/autistic people has been drawn from focus groups and interviews with:

• A small sample of local people with learning disabilities/autistic people, including some people already living in supported housing.
• Local community organisations such as Your Voice Counts.
• Local providers of supported housing such as Gateshead Council, Home Group, Riverside

1. The evidence from this engagement with local people and other stakeholders is summarised below.
2. Most people with a learning disability/autistic people don't want to live in a care home; care homes are not seen as aspirational or places that enable independence.
3. The majority of people with a learning disability are living with their families, which does suit some people, however some people would like to move on from the family home. This position is not sustainable for some people, for example adults with learning disabilities who are living with older parents/carers or with carers whom have health conditions.
4. There is a need for an increased range of good quality supported accommodation for people with a learning disabilities/autistic people (for example as summarised at paragraph 3.30).
5. The majority of people are seeking self-contained accommodation that enables them to live as independently as possible. For some people this may be a general needs property with an appropriate package of care/support not necessarily supported housing.
6. Some people would prefer to live in shared accommodation; this tends to be younger people where living with friends may be a preference and resembles the housing preference/experience of other young people their age living without a disability.
7. People with a sole diagnosis of autism tend to have sensory needs and social behaviours which make living in shared accommodation challenging. Self-contained accommodation is preferred, and properties may need to be adequately adapted to meet a range of sensory related needs, for example with sound proofing, different types of lighting, careful use of colour schemes. It is also necessary to consider how robust housing materials and fitments may need to be for individuals with complex support needs. Having access to green space will be an important consideration for some people.
8. Some people who are seeking supported accommodation are looking for small-scale supported housing schemes, for example supported housing developments with 8 to 10 self contained dwellings. .
9. Having access to communal space both indoors and outdoors is important for people's health and wellbeing.
10. Location is important. People with a learning disability/autistic people are seeking housing with good access to shops and amenities and where they feel safe.
11. Supported housing should enable tenants to have a sense of community as well as remain part of the local community. This is about linking residents to external social activities, volunteering and employment opportunities and in some cases it may be through the provision of communal space in supported housing schemes.
12. Some examples of best practice within Gateshead include Home Group's recent supported housing scheme and Gateshead Council's supported housing developments including self contained flats and four bungalows. Research participants living at these schemes liked living there.
13. People are seeking support navigating the housing system and accessing supported accommodation. Information needs to be 'learning disability and autism-friendly', for example, people are seeking easy-read tenancy agreements.
14. Evidence from discussions with registered providers and other housing providers indicates:

• There is interest in additional development of self-contained units of supported housing for people with a learning disability.
• There is an increase in people with a learning disability/on the autistic spectrum that also have a mental health diagnosis who may need quite bespoke housing options.

Local policy context and local commissioner perspectives and intelligence

Discussions were held with commissioners and operational managers from Adult Social Care to sense test local evidence and to establish a future housing vision, including the types of housing and supported accommodation required. Existing local plans and policies were reviewed.

The council's Market Position Statement, 2020 to 2022 includes objectives of:

• Improving the housing and support offer for people living semi-independently in the community, working alongside housing, social care and voluntary and community organisations.
• Development of an accommodation pathway for those people who can be supported in the community and continue discussions with partners to facilitate the development of a choice of accommodation for people with a learning disability which adheres to the principles of Transforming Care.

3.The council's Specialist and Supported Housing SPD 2022 (PDF, 1 MB) states:

• "The council is committed to enabling people with short or long-term care or support needs, wherever appropriate, to choose, or be accommodated safely in, suitable mainstream accommodation that will allow them to live in their own home as independently as possible with bespoke and flexible support."
• "There is recognition that extra care accommodation can also meet the needs of some younger adults with long-term conditions including learning disabilities, physical disabilities, dementia."

The council's vision for housing for people with learning disabilities drawing on local evidence of housing needs, stakeholder views and commissioners' insights is set out below. There is a desire to develop a housing pathway which includes a mix of housing and supported accommodation, which offer people different housing choices, from housing options with 24/7 support through to access to mainstream housing with packages of care/support tailored to individuals' needs

1. The council wishes to make less use of residential care as this is not seen as an accommodation option that promotes independence. .
2. There is a need for a small number of specialist supported housing schemes for people with complex care and support needs, including 24/7 support, which for example can also provide 'step down' accommodation for people being discharged from inpatient or care home settings.
3. There is a need for small 'clusters' of self-contained supported housing, both for people who need 24/7 support and for people with lower support needs.
4. There needs to be a mix of types of supported housing which enables people to have housing choices. This will include self-contained accommodation but shared supported housing will be preferred by some people. ..
5. There is a need for fully wheelchair adapted homes for people with learning disabilities who also have significant physical disabilities.
6. There is a need for an increased range of tenure choices, such as home ownership through the Home Ownership for people with Long Term Disabilities (HOLD) scheme.
7. Shared Lives options will be increased as a complementary housing offer alongside supported housing or individuals accessing mainstream housing.
8. People with learning disabilities need to be able to better access mainstream general needs housing within the wider community. This can be a realistic option for people where floating support or individualised care/support packages are provided.

As part of developing these housing options as part of a more extensive housing pathway, the following actions are being taken:

• Some existing shared housing schemes need to be reviewed and their future use considered, particularly where there are voids.
• There is a need for supported housing with lower service charges to enable people to access employment opportunities.

Projecting future adult population with a learning disability/on the autistic spectrum for Gateshead.

Based on evidence in relation to the population of people with learning disability/autistic people and evidence from council officers and their local partners, it is assumed that there will be growth of the adult population of people with a learning disability/autistic people to 2040. The population projection amongst people with learning disabilities/autistic people to 2040 in Gateshead is shown in table 18.

This is based on the following assumptions:

• This includes assumed population growth from:
  • an increasing older population of adults with learning disabilities/autistic people adjusted for estimated mortality
  • young people with learning disabilities/autistic people whom 'transition' to become adults eligible for social care.
  • a net increase of around nine people based on the estimated number of young people 'transitioning' to adult social care each year (estimated to be around17 young people per year based on both DfE data and data from Gateshead Council) and the estimated mortality per year amongst the population cohort (estimated to be eight people per annum based on NHS mortality data). This growth is applied to the number of people with a learning disability/autistic people known to the council in terms of being in receipt of social care services.

Table 18. Estimated population of adults with learning disabilities/autistic people aged 18 to 64 in Gateshead projected to 2040.

Source: NHS SALT (2020 to 2021); NHSE (2021/22); DfE (2021 to 2022)

Assumptions in relation to different housing/supported housing types to estimate housing need of the population of adults with learning disabilities/autistic people to 2040.

This is based on:

• Comparison with England average 'benchmarks' of the use of different types of housing/accommodation for people with learning disability, such as residential care.
• Projections in relation to population growth.
• Assumptions about trends in need for different types of housing and supported housing, drawing on evidence from engagement with people with learning disabilities/autistic people, with local stakeholders and with commissioners

Gateshead's use of residential care is below both the North East average and the England average (table 19). However, in the context of the council's objectives (such as, to reduce the use of residential care), it is assumed that the use of residential care will likely decrease.

Table 19. Adults with learning disabilities (SALT) that are accommodated in residential care (excluding nursing care) in Gateshead compared to North East region and England.

Source: SALT and Gateshead Council. Note. The percentages reflect the number of adults aged 18 to 64 that have a learning disability (SALT) that are in residential care, out of the total number of adults with a learning disability/autistic people (SALT).

The following assumptions have been applied to the projected need for accommodation for adults with a learning disability/autistic people:

• Evidence from commissioners is that there is a need to develop a wider range of supported accommodation, including more self-contained accommodation (as set out in paragraph 3.28).
• An ongoing increase is assumed amongst the population of people with learning disabilities/on the autistic spectrum in Gateshead. This includes assumed population growth from:
  • A growing older population of adults with learning disabilities/autistic people adjusted for mortality.
  • Young people with disabilities 'transitioning' becoming adults eligible for social care.
• The use of residential care is anticipated to decrease by at least around 50% by 2040, including the use of out of borough placements, with a wish to decrease the use of out of borough placements further.
• The need for mainstream housing with a care/support package is expected to increase slightly due to the increase in the overall population of adults with a learning disability/autistic people.
• Living with family/friends/informal carers: based on similar assessments with local authorities elsewhere, it is assumed that the percentage of people living with family carers, particularly older carers will decrease by around 20% by 2040 as a proportion of older carers are no longer in a position to be able to accommodate and support their adult children with learning disabilities. Some recent developments of supported housing in Gateshead have enabled older carers to remain close to their adult children.
• A modest level of growth has been assumed for Shared Lives.
• Supported housing/supported living is expected to increase due to the increasing overall population, a reduction in the use of residential care and a decrease in people living with family carers. However, it is assumed that the need for shared supported housing may decrease due to an increasing preference and need amongst people with learning disabilities/autistic people for self-contained accommodation, voids in existing shared housing schemes and lack of compatibility in terms of people moving into existing shared housing (for example due to the complexity of people's needs). It is assumed that the majority of the growth in need for supported housing will be for self-contained accommodation.
• Evidence from the council's Accommodation and Support Group about housing need amongst people with learning disabilities/autistic people has identified:
  • A need for 17 units of supported housing urgently, 31 units in the next 12/24 months and potentially up to 68 units required beyond that period. Of these people, at least five individuals require wheelchair adapted homes.
  • 21 people who are funded via Continuing Health Care that have a need for supported accommodation.
• Amongst the identified population of people with learning disabilities/autistic people, the council has identified that there are around 18 individuals who are likely to require 'bespoke' housing and support solutions due to the complexity of their needs (for example properties that are highly adapted and/or located in relatively isolated locations) (Bespoke Housing Need for People with Complex Needs (2023)).
• The anticipated need, based on the assumptions above that are used as part of estimating future housing need, are shown in table 20.

Table 20. Estimating future housing/supported accommodation need: housing/ accommodation type assumptions for change in level of need.

Note. Totals may not sum due to rounding

The estimated net need for housing and supported housing for people with learning disabilities/autistic people is shown in detail in table 21 and in summary in table 22. Table 21 shows the number of homes/units currently available to meet need, the number of homes/units required to meet unmet need, this unmet need projected to 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. Estimated need for supported accommodation is summarised in table 22.

Table 21. Gateshead: Housing and supported accommodation need for adults with learning disability/autistic people projected to 2040

Source: NHS SALT data 2020/21 and Gateshead Council. Note. Totals my not sum due to rounding

Table 22. Net additional units of supported accommodation required for people with a learning disability/autistic people in Gateshead to 2040

1. In summary, an additional around 90 units of supported accommodation are estimated to be needed by 2030 for people with a learning disability/autistic people and an additional approximately 215 units by 2040.
2. Of these additional around 215 units, approximately 25 units are estimated to be for Shared Lives accommodation and approximately 190 units are estimated to be for supported housing.
3. There is a need to develop a housing and accommodation 'pathway' for people with learning disabilities/autistic people.
4. This pathway of additional housing and supported housing options is required, in part, to reduce reliance on residential care to accommodate people. It is assumed that the number of people living in care home beds will decrease by around 50% by 2040. It is assumed that in future people who may have used residential/nursing care will use supported housing with 24/7 support as an alternative.
5. The estimated need indicates that the following 'components' of this housing pathway are required.
6. Supported housing or people with the most complex support needs. In some instances this may require bespoke individualised housing options, however it is often possible to meet this type of housing need in carefully designed and commissioned supported housing. This will include people identified as having the 'most complex' need and may include some people who are CHC funded. For example, a supported housing scheme in Kirklees, capital funded in part by NHS England, provides an example of this type of bespoke supported housing development Choice support, housing development (opens new window).
7. There is a need for of supported housing consisting of a small number of self contained flats (around six units). This is typically a small 'cluster' of flats with 24/7 support. An example of this type of supported housing scheme is Mulberry Lodge, Basingstoke which has been designed and capital funded by Hampshire County Council.
8. There is a need for additional small 'clusters' of self-contained supported housing that provides supported housing, both for people who no longer need 24/7 supported housing and people who need a supportive environment before moving to independent housing. This the equivalent of the 'concierge' type of supported housing schemes (typically eight to 10 self contained units) that have been developed recently in Gateshead.
9. Some of the need for supported housing can be met through an expansion of provision of Shared Lives.
10. There is a need for some people with learning disabilities/autistic people to have better access to mainstream general needs accommodation and to be supported with floating support to enable people to live within the community.
11. These supported housing requirements to 2030 are summarised below.

2023:

• One additional specialist supported housing development for people with the most complex needs. Five to 6 self-contained units. 24/7 support
• One additional 'cluster' of self-contained supported housing scheme. Six self-contained units. 24/7 support
• One additional 'concierge' type of self-contained supported housing scheme. Eight to 10 self-contained units. Support level to be determined (less than 24/7)

2025

• One additional specialist supported housing development for people with the most complex needs. Five to six self-contained units. 24/7 support
• One additional 'cluster' of self-contained supported housing scheme. Six self-contained units. 24/7 support
• One additional 'concierge' type of self-contained supported housing scheme. Eight to 10 self-contained units. Support level to be determined (less than 24/7)

2030:

• Three additional 'clusters' of self-contained supported housing schemes. Six self-contained units. 24/7 support
• Two additional 'concierge' type of self-contained supported housing schemes. Eight to 10 self-contained units. Support level to be determined (less than 24/7)

The intention of this assessment is to identify the housing and supported housing needs of people with significant mental health needs (who are in contact with specialist mental health services).

The assessment of need for housing and supported housing draws on a range of evidence, including:

• Demographic context: current population and projected population of people with significant mental health needs.
• Current provision of housing and supported accommodation.
• Evidence from people with mental health needs.
• Local policy context.
• Local commissioner perspectives and intelligence.

Population baseline

To provide an estimate for the number of people with significant mental health needs the following data sources have been used:

• Mental Health Services Data Set (MHSDS) from NHS Digital. Data for the Newcastle and Gateshead CCG area shows that there were 4,170 adults aged 18 to 64 years in contact with specialist mental health services (2021 to 2022). Based on Gateshead having approximately 39% of the overall population of Newcastle and Gateshead combined, it is assumed that 1,626 adults aged 18 to 64 years in Gateshead have contact with specialist mental health services.
• NHS Digital - Mental health service users on Care Programme Approach (CPA) (NHS Digital: Care Programme Approach: Mental health service users on Care Programme Approach: % of mental health service users (end of quarter snapshot); accessed via OHID Fingertips) - to provide a baseline figure of the number of adults with a significant mental health related need in Gateshead. It should be noted that this 'population' may not capture people with other support needs who may also have mental health related needs, for example some people who are or are at risk of homelessness.
• Data from Gateshead Council (Gateshead Council: Internally held data on number of individuals with a mental health related need): number of adults with a mental health related need receiving adult social care that are known to the council, including those living in supported housing, care homes and Shared Lives schemes. This is a smaller population cohort than the CPA population (as not all CPA clients will require social care or have a need for supported housing).
• Gateshead's Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) (Gateshead Joint Strategic Needs Assessment: Information on the number of people with learning disabilities living in their own home or with family).

The data from the MHSDS indicates that there are approximately 1,625 adults aged 18 to 64 years who have contact with specialist mental health services. The data from NHS Digital shows that there were estimated to be 591(NHS Digital data for adults with a mental health related need registered on the CPA is shown for Newcastle and Gateshead CCG. The data has been adapted to estimate the number of individuals registered on the CPA in Gateshead alone, based on ONS population data (39% of the combined Gateshead and Newcastle population is comprised of Gateshead).) individuals with a mental health related need registered on the CPA in 2019 to 2020. These are adults with significant mental health needs. This is used as a baseline figure for the number of adults with significant mental health needs in Gateshead.

The data from Gateshead Council shows that there were 155 individuals between the age of 18 to 64 people with a mental health related need receiving a social care service from the council, including people living in supported housing, care homes and Shared Lives schemes in Gateshead in 2021 to 2022.

Current housing/accommodation status

The housing/accommodation status of the people aged 18 to 64 with a mental health related need is shown below, based on MHSDS data and the council's data.

1. This includes the population of adults aged 18 to 64 with a significant mental health need disaggregated by the following accommodation categories:

• No./% living in residential/nursing care.
• No./% living in supported housing.
• No./% living in mainstream housing as tenants and/or homeowners.

Table 23. Accommodation: adults aged 18 to 64 in Gateshead with a mental health need.

Source: MHSDS 2021 to 2022. Gateshead Council.

Data regarding the number of people with mental health needs, people with learning disabilities and other working age adults with care needs living in care homes and in supported living (supported housing) has been provided by Gateshead Council commissioners.

This shows that the current supply of supported housing for people with mental health needs is limited; of that which is available, over 50% is in traditional shared supported housing, for example, where people have a bedroom but share the communal facilities with other tenants. There is only one self-contained supported housing scheme for people with mental health needs, which has five self contained flats.

4% of people with a significant mental health need are estimated to be living in supported housing and 4% are living in residential/nursing care homes.

A small number of people (five individuals) have 1:1 24/7 support living arrangements; this may include people with complex needs including mental health needs along with learning disability and/or autism related needs.

Projecting future population of people with a mental health need

Estimates of population growth take account of factors such as younger people with mental health related needs becoming adults and an ageing population.

Data from PANSI (opens new window) indicates an estimated reduction of approximately 3% in the number of people aged 18 to 64 years in Gateshead who are predicted to have two or more psychiatric disorders to 2040. However, local evidence from commissioners indicates an increasing trend of adults with serious mental illness being referred to mental health services. This local intelligence is also supported by data from the NHS Digital Quality and Outcomes Framework data.

Based on data from the NHS Quality and Outcomes Framework (NHS Digital: Quality and Outcomes Framework - 2012 to 2021: Number of adults with severe mental illness in Newcastle and Gateshead CCG; accessed via OHID Fingertips (opens new window)) regarding the population with severe mental illness, a 1.8% increase per year in this population is projected.

Based on the increase of 1.8% per year, the projected adult population with significant mental health needs for each five-year period to 2040 is shown in table 24.

Evidence from people with mental health needs and local stakeholders

The evidence regarding the housing perspectives of people with significant mental health needs has been drawn from the following stakeholders:

• A small sample of local residents.
• Local community organisations such as Mental Health Concern.
• Local providers of supported housing such as Oasis Community Housing, Home Group.

The key messages from these stakeholder are summarised below.

There is no desire amongst people with a mental health need to live in residential care settings.

There is a need for an increase in supported housing across Gateshead for people with a mental health need, particularly accommodation that supports people with complex mental health needs.

There is a need for more step-down accommodation that supports people to transition from acute hospital settings to supported accommodation.

In many cases, people with a mental health need would prefer and are able to live in mainstream housing with support. If supported housing is needed, self-contained accommodation is typically preferred over shared accommodation, which builds on peoples' strengths and capabilities.

The majority of people who need supported accommodation are seeking small-scale supported housing schemes.

For people with a mental health need having access to green space is important for their health and wellbeing.

People are seeking to live in locations with good access to public transport, shops, amenities and support services.

Where people with mental health needs are living successfully independently within the community, they are often receiving regular input from a housing support worker, and they are well connected to community support services. Having access to support groups and community is important. People with a range of mental health needs report that the existing process for finding alternative accommodation, whether in the private rented sector or through choice-based lettings, is often very challenging which can cause further anxiety and stress. Often people need support with this from community organisations to help with navigating access to housing.

Evidence from discussions with Registered Providers and other housing providers indicates:

• There is a changing resident profile in older person's accommodation to include 'younger' older people (such as people aged 55 to 65 years) with mental health needs. This is thought to be due to a lack of alternative supported accommodation.
• Mental health diagnosis has increased substantially in the last five years, for example including complex diagnosis and 'co-morbidity' with autism, which has meant an increased demand for supported housing but also floating support services.
• That people with 'dual diagnosis' (such as with mental health needs and autism) find access to appropriate housing difficult. There is a need for a wider range of housing provision for these individuals.

Local policy context and local commissioner perspectives and intelligence

The council's Market Position Statement, 2020 to 2022 includes an objective of:

• "Improving the housing and support offer for people living semi-independently in the community, working alongside housing, social care and voluntary and community organisations"

The council's Specialist and Supported Housing SPD 2022 (PDF, 1 MB) states:

• "The council is committed to enabling people with short or long-term care or support needs, wherever appropriate, to choose, or be accommodated safely in, suitable mainstream accommodation that will allow them to live in their own home as independently as possible with bespoke and flexible support."

The council's vision for a housing pathway for people with mental health needs, drawing on evidence of need for specialist and supported housing, the views of local stakeholders and commissioner insights is:

• There is a desire and need to develop an accommodation 'pathway' for people with significant mental health needs (who are in contact with/supported by specialist mental health services). This includes having the following mix of housing and types of supported accommodation.

1. There is a need for reduced reliance on residential care to house people and an increased need for a range of alternative housing options.
2. There is a need for a small number of specialist supported housing schemes for people with complex mental health needs, including 24/7 support, which can also provide 'step down' accommodation for people being discharged from inpatient settings.
3. There is a need for small 'clusters' of self-contained supported housing that provides short to medium term (up to 2 years) supported housing, both for people who no longer need 24/7 supported housing and people who need a supportive environment before moving to independent housing.
4. There is a need for people with a mental health needs to have better access to mainstream general needs accommodation and to be supported with floating support to enable people to live independently in the community.
5. There is a wish to expand community support networks as a model of support as this enables people to live in mainstream accommodation as well as providing support to access community life.

Assumptions about the need for different housing/supported accommodation types (the relative percentage of each housing/accommodation type) to be applied the estimated population to 2040 to identify projected housing/supported housing need

This is based on:

• Projections in relation to population growth.
• Assumptions about trends in need for different types of housing and accommodation.

Research by the Housing LIN with people with mental health needs, including in Gateshead, indicates that:

• There is no desire to live in residential care settings.
• There is a need for supported housing that supports recovery and independence.
• There is a need for supported housing with significant support on site that enables people to 'step down' from acute hospital settings.
• There is a requirement for access to mainstream housing with support as required.

Evidence from commissioners is that there is a need to develop an accommodation 'pathway' for people with significant mental health needs (as set out in paragraph 4.30).

The following assumptions have been applied to the estimates of housing and supported housing need for people with significant mental health needs:

• The adult population with a significant mental health need is comprised of the number of service users on the CPA with a mental health need (source: NHS Digital).
• The population growth of the adult population with a mental health need is 1.8% per year. (Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF), NHS Digital).
• Nursing and residential care use is assumed to decrease by at least 50% by 2040.
• Growth in population of adults with significant mental health needs and any reduction in need for residential / nursing care, is reflected in growth in need for supported housing and mainstream housing.
• There is a modest level of increase in need assumed for Shared Lives.
• Need for mainstream housing is calculated as the difference in the CPA population and the population in supported housing, Shared Lives and residential/nursing care.

Identifying estimated future housing and supported accommodation need for people with mental health needs

This identifies changes in net housing and supported housing requirements to meet projected housing need and changes in the types of housing/supported housing required. This is based on applying the assumptions above to the current housing/supported housing provision. This is then adjusted for identified population change over time.

Table 24 shows estimated need for housing/supported accommodation for people with significant mental health needs in Gateshead to 2040.

Table 24. Estimated need for housing/supported housing for people with significant mental health needs in Gateshead to 2040

Source: Gateshead Council (2022) and NHS Digital (2019/20)

Table 25. Net additional need for supported housing to 2040

Tables 24 and 25 indicate that there is an estimated net need for approximately 30 units of additional supported housing for people with significant mental health needs by 2030 and approximately 65 units of additional supported housing by 2040.

There is a need to develop a housing and accommodation 'pathway' for people with significant mental health needs (who are in contact with/supported by specialist mental health services) as set out at paragraph 4.30.

This pathway of additional housing and supported housing options is required, in part, to reduce reliance on residential care to accommodate people. It is assumed that the number of people living in care home beds will decrease by approximately 50% by 2040. It is assumed that in future people who may have used residential/nursing care will use supported housing with 24/7 support as an alternative.

The estimated need indicates that the following 'components' of this housing pathway are required.

There is a need for of specialist supported housing for people with complex mental health needs as short to medium term accommodation (for example for up to two years) consisting of a small number of self contained flats (approximately five to six units). This is typically a small 'cluster' of flats with 24/7 support, which can also provide 'step down' accommodation for people being discharged from inpatient settings. An example of this type of supported housing scheme is the London Borough of Greenwich mental health high support scheme, which provides supported housing with 24/7 support for people with serious mental health needs, for example being discharged from inpatient settings or leaving a residential care setting.

There is a need for additional small 'clusters' of self-contained supported housing (similar to recent supported housing developments in Gateshead) that provides medium term supported housing (for example for up to three years), both for people who no longer need 24/7 supported housing and people who need a supportive environment before moving to independent housing. This the equivalent of the 'concierge' type of supported housing schemes (typically eight to 10 self contained units) that have been developed recently in Gateshead. Another example of this type of supported housing scheme is Salveson House, London. This is operated by One Housing and provides contemporary (new build) self contained one bed flats in a cluster of 12 units for people with long term/complex mental health needs.

There is a need for people with significant mental health needs to have better access to mainstream general needs accommodation and to be supported with floating support to enable people to live within the community. This could include expanding community support networks as a model of support as this would enable people to live in mainstream accommodation as well as providing support to access community life.

These supported housing requirements to 2030 are summarised below.

2023:

• one additional specialist supported housing scheme for people with complex mental health needs. Five to six s/c units. 24/7 support

2025:

• one additional 'concierge' type of supported housing scheme. Eight to 10 s/c units. Support level to be determined (less than 24/7)

2030

• one additional specialist supported housing scheme for people with complex mental health needs. Five to six s/c units. 24/7 support
• one additional 'concierge' type of supported housing scheme. Eight to 10 s/c units. Support level to be determined (less than 24/7)

The intention of this assessment is to identify the housing needs of people with physical disabilities, many of whom will require accessible properties, some of whom will also have care/support needs, for example due to long term health conditions. This assessment of need covers estimated need for accessible housing, including for wheelchair users.

Contextual evidence from stakeholders

The evidence regarding the housing perspectives of people with a physical disability has been drawn from:

• A small sample of local residents.
• Local providers of supported housing such as Home Group, Anchor, JJH, Thirteen, Karbon, Riverside, Oasis Community Housing.

The majority of people with a physical disability would typically prefer to live in adapted mainstream housing with any care/support they require rather than in supported housing. There is a need for additional accessible housing, including fully wheelchair accessible housing, in Gateshead.

People are seeking properties that are a 'home for life' and enable them to live there as long as possible.

The majority of adaptations required for adults with physical disabilities are grab rails, ramps and level access showers.

People are also seeking improved access to aids and adaptations that enable them to stay in their current homes. For example, through a better understanding of and access to Disabled Facilities Grants.

People with physical disabilities are often seeking larger properties as they need space to store equipment and some people may need an extra bedroom for an overnight carer as well as level access requirements.

People with physical disabilities are seeking to live in areas with good access to shops, amenities and support services.

The evidence of need based on insights from Registered Provider indicates:

• There is an increase in tenants seeking aids and adaptations.
• There is an increased need for wheelchair adapted properties.

The evidence of need based on commissioner insights is:

• There is a need for additional bungalow accommodation to be developed as part of the mix of housing types on general needs housing development sites.
• There is an ongoing need for housing adapted to both M4(2) and M4(3) standards, however, there needs to be careful matching of people in need for fully wheelchair adapted homes. This reflects the current approach of the council which has an ongoing planning policy for 25% of homes on new housing developments over 15 dwellings to be built to M4(2) standards.

Estimate of need for accessible housing

The method for estimating the total number of wheelchair user households in Gateshead with an unmet need for accessible housing is based on methods derived from two complementary estimation models:

• The Horizon Housing model (Horizon Housing (2018): Still Minding the step? A new estimation of the housing needs of wheelchair users in Scotland; North Star Consulting and Research, CIH Scotland.), 'Still minding the step?' This is used to estimate the number of wheelchair user households that have an unmet housing need.
• The Habinteg Housing Association model; (Habinteg. Mind the Step: An estimation of housing need among wheelchair users in England.) this is used to estimate the number of wheelchair user households with an unmet need for either fully wheelchair adapted or accessible housing.

The method outlined in the Horizon Housing model draws upon evidence from:

• The English Housing Survey (English Housing Survey 2014/2015: Unsuitable accommodation, by age and tenure.) (EHS), from which the following data has been derived:
  • The proportion of wheelchair users that use a wheelchair exclusively indoors and the equivalent proportion of wheelchair users using a wheelchair exclusively outdoors.
  • Data about unmet accessible housing need for wheelchair user households.
• The Scottish Household Survey (Scottish Household Survey 2015: Accommodation suitability.) (SHS), from which the following has been derived: data about the suitability of accommodation amongst wheelchair user households.

In addition to this, household population data for Gateshead (ONS 2018-based household projections for England: detailed data for modelling) has been used to apply the method derived from the Horizon Housing model to produce local estimates of the number of wheelchair user households and wheelchair user households with unmet need for accessible housing.

Table 26 shows the household count data for Gateshead, data about wheelchair users and unmet need that may be applied to Gateshead.

Table 26. Wheelchair user households and unmet need for accessible housing.

Source: ONS 2018; Horizon Housing: Still Minding the step?

To produce estimates of need for accessible housing, the data (percentages) in table 26 are applied to the total number of households in Gateshead, following the method outlined in the Horizon Housing model. The method is as follows:

• Calculate the number of indoor-only wheelchair user households.
• Calculate the number of outdoor-only wheelchair user households.
• Calculate the number of wheelchair user households where the user uses the wheelchair continuously.
• Calculate the unmet housing need among indoor-only wheelchair user households.
• Calculate the unmet housing need among outdoor-only wheelchair user households.
• Calculate the unmet housing need among wheelchair user households using wheelchairs continuously.
• Calculate all unmet need among wheelchair user households.

Table 27 shows the application of this model for both Gateshead and for England.

Table 27. Estimate of number of households with a wheelchair user and an unmet need for accessible housing, for Gateshead and England. Method derived from Horizon Housing model

Source: Horizon Housing (2018), English Housing Survey (2014 to 2015), Scottish Household Survey (2015) and ONS 2018-based estimate for households in England.

Based on the Horizon model, there are estimated to be 648 wheelchair users in Gateshead that have an unmet need for accessible housing currently.

It is assumed that wheelchair users most likely to require a fully adapted property are indoor only and continuous wheelchair users, for example approximately 38% of estimated unmet need for accessible housing.

Of these approximately 650 households:

• It is estimated that approximately 250 fully wheelchair adapted homes are required for example, similar to Part M(4) Category 3 broadly equivalent to the Wheelchair Housing Design standard.
• It is estimated that approximately 400 accessible and adaptable homes are required (for example, not fully wheelchair adapted homes) for example, similar to Part M(4) Category 2 broadly equivalent to the Lifetime Homes standard.

The Habinteg model has the following underlying assumption that the majority of wheelchair users (60%) are age 65+, and the remaining (40%) are for working age adults and under-18s. This assumption is based on data from the English Housing Survey.

Application of the Habinteg model on age disaggregation of wheelchair users allows for the estimate of households that have an unmet need for accessible housing, generated from the Horizon model, broken down by age of wheelchair user.

The table below shows the projected growth in the number of wheelchair user homes with an unmet need, over the period to 2040. This is disaggregated by age group of the wheelchair users within those homes.

Table 28. Projected growth in number of wheelchair users with an unmet need for accessible housing to 2040, disaggregated by age group.

Source: ONS 2019-based household projections for England; Habinteg Housing/Horizon Housing models

In summary, by 2040, it is estimated that there will be approximately 675 wheelchair users with an unmet need for accessible housing, of which:

• It is estimated that approximately 255 wheelchair users require fully wheelchair adapted homes, similar to Part M(4) Category 3 broadly equivalent to the Wheelchair Housing Design standard.
• This is the equivalent of a need for approximately 15 fully wheelchair-adapted homes required per year to 2040 for the all-age population.
• Among the working age population, this is the equivalent of a need for approximately six fully wheelchair-adapted homes required per year to 2040.
• It is estimated that approximately 420 wheelchair users require accessible and adaptable homes (such as not fully wheelchair adapted dwellings), similar to Part M(4) Category 2, broadly equivalent to the Lifetime Homes standard.
• This is the equivalent of a need for approximately 25 accessible and adaptable homes required per year to 2040, for the all-age population.
• For the working age population, this is the equivalent of a need for approximately 10 accessible and adaptable homes required per year to 2040.

Table 29 shows the estimated need for accessible homes to 2040 for the all-age population and the population aged 0 to 64 years (such as children and working age population).

Table 29. Estimated need for accessible homes to 2040 for the all-age population and the population aged 0 to 64.

The above estimate of a need for approximately 675 accessible homes in Gateshead to 2040, is disaggregated by each neighbourhood area, according to the population composition of the neighbourhoods.

In order to disaggregate the unmet need (table 33) by each neighbourhood, estimates for the population (ONS Mid-2020 Population Estimates for 2020 Wards and 2021 LAs in England and Wales by Single Year of Age and Sex, Persons - Experimental Statistics; Table SAPE23DT8a) across all age groups, for each ward, has been aggregated to neighbourhood level, and the relative composition of each neighbourhood's proportion of Gateshead's population is used to disaggregate the estimates of need for accessible homes.

The neighbourhood-level disaggregation for unmet need for accessible housing is shown in the table below.

Table 30. Projected unmet need for accessible homes, by 2040 disaggregated by each neighbourhood in Gateshead.

Source: ONS 2020 ward population estimates and ONS 2018-based subnational population projection

This indicates that there is an ongoing need for housing adapted to both M4(2) and M4(3) standards which is addressed through the current approach of the council which has an ongoing planning policy for 25% of homes on new housing developments over 15 dwellings to be built to M4(2) standards.

Gateshead Council undertook a Statutory Homelessness Review in 2021 and subsequently developed a Homelessness and Rough Sleeping strategy, which was approved in January 2022. It is part of the brief for this specialist and supported housing need assessment that it does not duplicate evidence, including evidence of need for supported housing, from the Homelessness Review 2021.

This specialist and supported housing need assessment has reviewed work commissioned by Gateshead Council from Campbell Tickell (outlined below) to identify the specialist and supported housing need requirements and to project these identified needs into the future, and to identify the supported housing needs of other cohorts who may be at risk of homelessness including people who are armed forces veterans or who are refugees/asylum seekers.

Gateshead Council has commissioned Campbell Tickell to complete an assessment of need for supported housing and housing related support services for people who are homeless or at risk of homelessness, and subsequent commissioning and procurement plans. Three 'clusters' of customer groups have been defined as being included in this need assessment:

• Vulnerable people subject to or fleeing domestic abuse (DA).
• Homelessness and multiple complex needs (for example, households having the following range of support needs recorded: Mental Health, Substance Misuse, Offending and/or Rough sleeping).
• Young People.

Work undertaken by consultancy Campbell Tickell in relation to the 'cohorts' above at risk of or recovering from homelessness has been reviewed and used as appropriate to identify need for specialist and supported housing. We have added evidence from qualitative work undertaken by the Housing LIN with a sample of people who have experienced homelessness and other local stakeholders in Gateshead.

As requested by the council, this section provides a summary of the identified specialist and supported housing needs, as appropriate, of these three cohorts.

Vulnerable people subject to or fleeing domestic abuse

A. Population baseline

1. The Commissioning and Procurement Plan for Domestic Abuse produced by Campbell Tickell states that, an analysis of demand has been carried out based on the H-CLIC data analysed by Gateshead, as well as other data. The H-CLIC data has been analysed over a two-year period.
2. Domestic abuse has been defined as those households whose main reason for homelessness or threat of homelessness is related to Domestic Abuse, where a homelessness duty is owned. On average there are 443 households annually whose main reason for homelessness or threat of homelessness is domestic abuse. There is a wider cohort who have a history of domestic abuse but whose main reason for homelessness or threat of homelessness is not domestic abuse - this cohort has been included in the other pathways.
3. The composition of these households is as follows:
   • 194 women with children
   • 187 women without children
   • 79 men with children
   • seven men without children

The Gateshead homelessness review report 2021 (opens new window) identified that across the four quarters, Gateshead had the highest proportion (22%) of households who were homeless due to domestic abuse when compared to England (12%), North East (14%), Darlington (14%), North Tyneside (12%) and South Tyneside (12%) as of July to September 2020. The level is consistently higher in Gateshead than the average in England and the North East. Similarly, the proportion of households owed a duty with support needs due to domestic abuse was also higher in Gateshead (21.2%) when compared to England (10.9%), North East (15.4%), Darlington (17%), North Tyneside (16.9%) and South Tyneside (12.7%) as of July to September 2020.

B. Current housing/accommodation status

The Commissioning and Procurement Plan for Domestic Abuse produced by Campbell Tickell states that the accommodation outcomes of DA households where a prevention intervention ended is as follows (based on 2020 to 2021 data):

• 64% council tenancy
• 14% in private sector
• 10% registered provider tenancy
• 3% supported housing or hostel
• 9% unknown

This means that the accommodation outcomes for prevention are likely to have resulted in most of these households remaining in their current accommodation, with some being placed in a supported housing/refuge accommodation.

The accommodation outcomes of DA households where a relief duty is brought to an end is as follows (based on 2020 to 2021):

• 71% local authority tenancy
• 8.6% private tenancy
• 2% housing association tenancy
• 13% supported housing or hostel
• 5.4% unknown

There is an existing commissioned DA refuge with six units. This refuge also has two non-commissioned units. There is a further nine units of dispersed accommodation for DA - which were part funded by the local authority using the 21/22 safe accommodation funding to be delivered within 2022 to 2023, as a temporary measure to increase capacity pending the council's review of accommodation and support, with no ongoing commitment.

Although other supported housing provision accepts individuals with a history of domestic abuse, the demand analysis is specifically focused on DA provision for those whose main reason for homelessness is DA.

There is a caseload capacity of 60 to 80 units within existing floating support services for those living in dispersed accommodation. The floating support service is able to effectively support survivors of domestic abuse. This is provided across three different teams currently, each with slightly different remits.

Gateshead also has two in-house Domestic Abuse Services, delivered by Children's Services and the Housing department. These provide direct support to victim-survivors, children, and perpetrators of domestic abuse. This service generally works with victims who are at high levels of risk but may take those at lower levels of risk such as where there are child protection concerns.

Gateshead also has a number of non-commissioned, charitable services such as Oasis Community Housing's Empower programme, which provides emotional support and counselling to survivors of domestic abuse. However, as this service is discretionary and non-commissioned (and may be withdrawn by the provider at any time dependent on funding) it has not been included within the proposals for accommodation/support services to meet a homelessness duty.

C. Assumptions about the need for different housing/supported accommodation types

The Commissioning and Procurement Plan for Domestic Abuse produced by Campbell Tickell states the demand analysis has been carried out on the basis that 80% of domestic abuse households will either remain in their existing tenancy or be placed directly into a tenancy if they are homeless, with some needing floating support, and 20% requiring supported housing/refuge accommodation.

The Commissioning and Procurement Plan for Domestic Abuse produced by Campbell Tickell states the demand analysis found that there is a significant undersupply of suitable safe accommodation for this cohort. About 66 households need to be placed in safe accommodation annually and, taking into account existing 31 placements, there is shortfall of 38 placements each year. Allowing for turnover based on length of stay 61 to 65 units of safe accommodation are required.

D. Evidence from vulnerable people subject to or fleeing domestic abuse and local stakeholders

The Housing LIN has undertaken qualitative research with people subject to or fleeing domestic abuse and with organisations that support them in other regions which indicates that:

• While refuge services are an essential part of the response to domestic abuse for many victims/survivors who are in crisis and need a place of safety, it should be offered amongst the other options available including temporary accommodation.
• A range of housing choices are needed; for some this might be single occupancy units whereas others might require shared supported accommodation.
• Support to remain at home safely and safe self contained 'dispersed' properties (rather than 'refuge' provision) where this is not possible is desirable. This is consistent with the policy direction for perpetrators to be moved rather than victim/survivors.
• There is a need to increase tenancy sustainment options so that people experiencing domestic abuse can remain safely in their home when it is their choice.
• There is a need to increase supply of genuinely affordable accommodation and move on options from refuge services, supported accommodation and any other type of temporary accommodation.

E. Identifying estimated future housing and accommodation need for vulnerable people subject to or fleeing domestic abuse

The Commissioning and Procurement Plan for Domestic Abuse produced by Campbell Tickell identifies:

• Allowing for turnover based on the length of stay an additional 61 to 65 units of safe accommodation is required.
• Although there is a substantial quantity of floating support available, and specialist domestic abuse support, the demand analysis found that there remains a shortfall of floating support 20 to 35 units.

Campbell Tickell completed an exercise to identify the profile of service types required which takes account of the assessed need for additional units (in addition to the existing refuge (six units) and the nine existing dispersed units). This is summarised in the table below.

Table 31. Profile of service types required for people subject to or escaping domestic abuse, by number of units and length of stay. (Campbell Tickell)

From table 31 the proposed additional supported housing, excluding dispersed housing (Housing LIN bold highlight), has been identified:

• supported housing 18 to 25
• refuge 25 to 55 24/7
• single property for complex needs 24/7

Based on analysis of Campbell Tickell's proposals, it is assessed that 26 units of additional supported housing are required as at 2023 (excluding dispersed accommodation).

Homelessness and multiple complex needs and Rough Sleeper Initiative

1. Multiple and complex needs (MCN) is defined as a households having 3 or more support needs recorded out of Mental Health, Substance Misuse, Domestic Abuse, Offending or Rough sleeping.
2. Population baseline
   1. The Commissioning and Procurement Plan for Homelessness and multiple complex needs and rough sleepers produced by Campbell Tickell states that an analysis of demand has been carried out based on the H-CLIC data analysed by Gateshead, as well as other data. The H-CLIC data has been analysed over a two year period.
   2. On average there are 198 households annually with multiple and complex needs, who are homeless or threatened with homelessness
   3. The total number of households with MCN has been reduced for this pathway, to take account of the fact that some needs will be met by other pathways. 41 households with MCN whose main reason for homelessness or threat of homelessness is DA will have their needs taken into account by the DA pathway. 21 households with MCN who aged under 25 will have their needs taken into account by the YP pathway. This results in a net figure of 136 people with MCN.
   4. There is a wider cohort of households who have 3+ support needs recorded, but do not meet the criteria for multiple and complex needs. There are on average 156 households who comprise this cohort and they have been included within the homeless and multiple and complex needs accommodation pathway. This particular cohort does overlap to some extent with the needs identified for the other pathways.
   5. The composition of the households with MCN is as follows:
      • 66% male without children
      • 29% female without children
      • less than 1% female with children
      • 3% couple without children
      • less than 1% male with children
3. Support profile and current housing/accommodation status
   1. The accommodation at the time of application for cases of MCN where a duty was as follows (based on the top three):
      • 15% council tenancy
      • 16% homeless on departure from an institution: custody
      • 17% No Fixed Abode (mainly 'sofa surfing')
   2. A number of people were recorded as rough sleeping. It is estimated that there are about 49 people p.a. who are either rough sleeping or at risk of rough sleeping (for example, homeless on departure from custody or NFA). In addition to the 49 with MCN who approached Housing Solutions and who are either rough sleeping or at risk of rough sleeping, there is a cohort who directly approach rough sleeper services. It is estimated that approximately 78 direct referrals p.a. are accepted by the rough sleepers 58:7 assessment (six units for males) based on the level of referrals during the first four months of the service.
   3. The support needs of cases where a households with MCN were owed a duty was a follows:
      • 83% history of mental health
      • 82% substance misuse needs
      • 41% history of domestic abuse
      • 77% offending needs
      • 55% rough sleeper needs
   4. Although some households were prevented from losing their council tenancies, or were allocated a council tenancy through a relief duty, the vast majority of housing outcomes resulted in temporary accommodation, including supported housing.
   5. Currently there are 84 units existing commissioned supported housing units and about 95 non-commissioned units, many of which are located in the same properties as the commissioned units. In addition there is specific accommodation for rough sleepers funded in Gateshead - there are 4 units of RSAP dispersed properties through Tyne Housing and 15 units of NSAP dispersed properties provided as an inhouse service.
   6. There are currently six RSI funded direct access beds (four for Gateshead and two for South Tyneside) and 10 RSI funded supported accommodation beds based on Housing First principles (four for Gateshead and two for South Tyneside).
4. Assumptions about the need for different housing/supported accommodation types
   1. The demand analysis found that a combination of Housing First, 24/7 supported housing; semi-independent supported housing and dispersed supported housing will be required to meet the needs of households with MCN. Those households with 3+ support needs (but who do not have MCN) will also require access to supported housing, although they will have other housing options including the DA and YP pathways.
5. Evidence from people at risk of homelessness with multiple complex needs and local stakeholders
   1. The Housing LIN has undertaken qualitative research with people at risk of homelessness with multiple complex needs and with organisations that support them in other regions and with a sample of organisations in Gateshead which indicates that:
      • There is a need for an increased range of housing options for people with multiple complex needs.
      • The majority of people are seeking self-contained accommodation with support.
      • There needs to be a clear 'housing pathway' for this cohort with access to a range of housing options from 24/7 supported housing, semi-independent supported housing, mainstream independent housing with floating support and Housing First for people with the most complex support needs.
6. Identifying estimated future housing and accommodation need for homelessness with multiple complex needs/rough sleepers
   1. Altogether 20 units of Housing First and potentially 95 units of supported housing are estimated to be required for this pathway. Some of the supported accommodation needs to be provided for more than 12 months and some individuals will need intensive housing floating support when they move on.
   2. Access to the existing 82 units of Temporary Accommodation (TA) is not included as part of this pathway, although those with MCN could be diverted from needing to access TA or bed and breakfast accommodation.
   3. Campbell Tickell also completed an exercise to identify the profile of service types required which takes account of the assessed need for 20 Housing First and potentially 95 supported housing units for this pathway. This is summarised in the table below.

Table 32. Profile of the service types required, by units and length of stay, for homeless people/people with multiple or complex needs/rough sleepers. (Campbell Tickell)

1. There are 80 units of supported housing units currently commissioned for homelessness in 9 properties. Some of the properties have a combination of commissioned and non-commissioned units.
2. The table below shows that the commissioning exercise will result in 90 units of commissioned supported housing, plus another 25 units if the SHAP bid is successful.
3. Based on analysis of Campbell Tickell's proposals, it is assessed that the need for additional supported housing is 35 units at 2023 (assuming the SHAP funding bis is successful).

Young People

1. Young People at risk of homelessness are defined as a person aged 16 to 25 with support needs which mean they are at risk of homelessness.
2. Population baseline
   1. The Commissioning and Procurement Plan for Young People with Support Needs produced by Campbell Tickell states that an analysis of demand has been carried out based on the H-CLIC data for Gateshead, as well as other data. The H-CLIC data has been analysed over a two-year period.
   2. 783 young people (16 to 25 years) were assessed as being owed a duty over this two year period. The support needs of those who were owed a duty were as follows:
      • 34% with mental health support needs
      • 10 to 20% with offending needs
      • 20% with substance misuse needs
      • 10 to 20% with leaving care needs
      • 8% with multiple and complex needs
3. Current housing/accommodation status
   1. There are 43 units existing commissioned supported housing units under the Social and Independent Living (SAILS) programme and a further 25 units delivered by Oasis Aquila, 68 units in total.
   2. There are also 30 'taster flats' provided by Gateshead Council.
   3. Campbell Tickell assume that there are therefore 98 units of accommodation available for young people who are homeless.
4. Assumptions about the need for different housing/supported accommodation types
   1. The Campbell Tickell Commissioning and Procurement Plan assumes that some of the needs listed at 6.47 are overlapping, and there is a 75/25 split between low and medium needs, and high needs young people. It is assumed that low and medium needs young people will require a shorter stay in assessment provision before moving on to either the taster flats or private rented accommodation. It is assumed that high needs young people will require up to 14 months' stay in higher needs accommodation.
   2. In discussion with commissioners, greater flexibility is required in how existing and new services are used in order to more flexibly meet the changing needs of young people coming through the pathway (such as an increase in unaccompanied asylum-seeking children, who may require significant initial support but whose support needs after this initial period are likely to decrease) and fluctuating support for young people with medium needs.
   3. Floating support is subject to a separate review and not included in the Campbell Tickell Commissioning and Procurement Plan. It is anticipated that some shortfalls in accommodation supply may be able to be mitigated by the use of floating support into additional dispersed accommodation.
5. Evidence from young people at risk of homelessness and local stakeholders
   1. The Housing LIN has conducted light-touch engagement with council officers and providers of supported accommodation for young people in Gateshead. The following were the key findings:
      • There is a need for 24/7 supported housing for young people aged 17, 18, 19 with complex needs to live more independently.
      • There is an urgent need to provide better access to move-on accommodation (taster one-bed flats) for young people with floating support. At present people are staying in supported housing/residential care for longer than they need to.
      • There is scope to expand the Shared Lives offer for young people.
      • There are a number of good staying put foster arrangements that work really well for young people and have seen them move into their own accommodation and education/employment.
      • Young people are seeking to live in locations that are close to the city centre so they can be close to amenities, educational facilities, shops and public transport.
6. Identifying estimated future housing and accommodation need for young people at risk of homelessness
   1. The Campbell Tickell Commissioning and Procurement Plan assumes that around 50% of young people will have low to medium needs (for example, one or more support needs, which can be met in supported housing with staff on site daily and with on call support overnight, but not requiring 24 hour cover). Around 50% will likely have higher or multiple needs and require staff on site 24 hours per day. This could be provided in a wide range of settings which meet young people's varied needs.
   2. Campbell Tickell have assumed a nine month length of stay for over 18s with low to medium needs, and an 18 month length of stay for those with higher needs.
   3. Campbell Tickell's assessment is that there is an outstanding need for 76 bedspaces (plus taster flats) per year across a range of settings, and five additional units funded by Children's Services for 16/17-year-old looked after children
   4. It is proposed that this need is reflected in a requirement for 81 bedspaces per year, split into a mix of high, medium and low settings for support. This is summarised in the table below.

Table 33. Need for supported accommodation for young people at risk of homelessness. (Campbell Tickell)

1. Currently there are 43 units of supported housing within SAILS. Campbell Tickell's note that a matching exercise will need to take place to match the existing properties to the requirements for supported housing.
2. Based on analysis of Campbell Tickell's proposals, it is assessed that the need for supported housing is 38 units of additional supported housing are required (2023), if the dispersed accommodation units are included.
3. Campbell Tickell identify that this supported accommodation will need to meet the needs of young unaccompanied asylum seekers. Evidence from Children's Services suggests that approximately 30 young asylum seekers per annum from 2023 to 2024 may need to be accommodated in supported housing.

Table 34 below shows projected net need for different types of specialist and supported housing for the client cohorts covered by this needs assessment.

Table 34 identifies estimated:

• current unmet need at 2023 (homes)
• need by 2025 (homes)
• need by 2030 (homes)
• need by 2035 (homes)
• need by 2040 (homes)

In relation to the need for different tenure options, for most cohorts this is a need for affordable rented supported housing (although it is recognised that supported housing rents are typically higher, sometimes considerably higher, than general needs housing for affordable rent); where a need for other tenure types is identified, for example, for sale/shared ownership, this is specifically highlighted in table 34.

The previous sections of this need assessment set out where it is possible for identified need for specialist and supported housing to be disaggregated by locality, specifically for specialist housing for older people and accessible housing for people with physical disabilities. The population sizes of the other cohorts are typically smaller making disaggregation by locality less feasible and meaningful.

Whilst the assessment is shown in relation to 'client cohorts', it is recognised that people's needs are often complex and that innovative approaches to housing and support that go beyond these 'cohort' definitions will be required and indeed desirable:

• An assumption that mainstream housing suitably designed and/or adapted will be appropriate for many people with care and/or support needs.
• Opportunities for inter-generational living will form part of the required housing solutions.
• Housing solutions may be multi-functional, for example, providing a mix of mainstream housing, supported housing and potentially other facilities.
• All housing and supported accommodation for people with care and/or support needs should assist and facilitate inclusion in community life.
• This is consistent with current national policy (for example, from the Social Care White Paper) which places a stronger emphasis on the role of preventative approaches, including the role of housing, such as approaches to supporting people to remain living in their own homes, in both mainstream housing and supported housing, including the use of home adaptations and digital technology to support and promote the independence of older people and other people with care/support needs.

Table 34. Specialist and supported housing need for Gateshead (number of homes).

Estimated need for specialist housing and accommodation: Older people

Housing for older people (retirement housing for sale and for social/affordable rent). The estimated housing for older people net need to 2040 is approximately 670 homes of which approximately 270 homes are estimated to be required for social/affordable rent and approximately 400 are estimated to be required for shared ownership/sale. Based on the qualitative evidence about older people's housing preferences (paragraph 2.62) it is assumed that potentially up to 50% of this estimated need could be met through the provision of mainstream housing that is designed for and accessible to older people even if it is not technically 'designated' for older people, for example housing that is 'care ready' and suited to ageing as distinct from 'retirement housing'. This may include mainstream housing to accessible and adaptable standards M4(2) and M4(3).

Housing with care (extra care housing). The estimated housing with care net need to 2040 is approximately 435 homes of which approximately 305 homes are estimated to be required for social / affordable rent and approximately 130 homes are estimated to be required for shared ownership/sale. This will meet the housing and care needs of older people who are self-funders as well as older people who need rented accommodation and are eligible for social care funded by the council. This need could be met in part through mixed tenure development of extra care housing.

Residential care and nursing care. The estimated residential care net need is not anticipated to increase significantly over the period to 2040. It is likely that residential care bed capacity will need to be increasingly focussed on older people with more complex social care needs, such as people living with dementia. The estimated nursing care net need to 2040 is approximately 230 bedspaces. It is likely that nursing care bed capacity will need to be increasingly focussed on older people with more complex health and social care needs, including people living with dementia. This is aligned with the council's integrated residential/nursing care delivery model.

Estimated need for supported accommodation: Adults with learning disability/autistic people

In summary, an additional approximately 90 units of supported accommodation are estimated to be needed by 2030 for people with a learning disability/autistic people and an additional approximately 215 units by 2040.

Of these additional approximately 215 units, approximately 25 units are estimated to be for Shared Lives accommodation and approximately 190 units are estimated to be for supported housing.

There is mostly a need for self-contained accommodation but shared supported housing does have a role in some cases, but it needs to be clear it is not typically a permanent housing solution.

Some existing shared housing needs to be reviewed and its future use considered, particularly where there are voids.

There is a need for an increased range of tenure choices; some of the identified need for supported housing could potentially be met through, for example, home ownership through the Home Ownership for people with Long term Disabilities scheme (opens new window).

People with learning disabilities need to be able to better access mainstream general needs housing within the wider community. This can be a realistic option for people where floating support or individualised care/support packages are provided.

Shared Lives options need to be increased as a complementary housing offer alongside supported housing or individuals accessing mainstream housing.

Estimated need for supported housing: Adults with significant mental health needs

There is an estimated net need for approximately 30 units of additional supported housing for people with significant mental health needs by 2030 and approximately 65 units of additional supported housing by 2040.

There is a need to develop an accommodation 'pathway' for people with significant mental health needs (who are in contact with/supported by specialist mental health services). This includes having the following mix of housing and types of supported accommodation.

Reduced reliance on residential care to accommodate people and an increased need for a range of alternative housing options. It is assumed that the number of people living in care home beds will decrease by approximately 50% by 2040. It is assumed that in future people who may have used residential/nursing care will use supported housing with 24/7 support as an alternative.

There is a need for a small number (approximately five to 10 units) of specialist supported housing units for people with complex mental health needs, including 24/7 support, which can also provide 'step down' accommodation for people being discharged from inpatient settings.

There is a need for additional small 'clusters' of self-contained supported housing (similar to the recent scheme developed in Gateshead) that provides short term supported housing, both for people who no longer need 24/7 supported housing and people who need a supportive environment before moving to independent housing.

There is a need for people with significant mental health needs to have better access to mainstream general needs accommodation and to be supported with floating support to enable people to live within the community. This could include expanding the KeyRing Scheme; this would enable people to live in mainstream accommodation with support.

Estimated need for accessible housing: Adults with physical disabilities

In summary, by 2040, it is estimated that there will be approximately 675 wheelchair users with an unmet need for accessible housing, of which:

• It is estimated that approximately 255 wheelchair users require fully wheelchair adapted homes, for example, similar to Part M(4) Category 3 broadly equivalent to the Wheelchair Housing Design standard.
• This is the equivalent of a need for approximately 15 fully wheelchair-adapted homes required per year to 2040 for the all-age population.
• Among the working-age population, this is the equivalent of a need for approximately six fully wheelchair-adapted homes required per year to 2040.
• It is estimated that approximately 420 wheelchair users require accessible and adaptable homes (for example, not fully wheelchair adapted dwellings), similar to Part M(4) Category 2, broadly equivalent to the Lifetime Homes standard.
• This is the equivalent of a need for approximately 25 accessible and adaptable homes required per year to 2040, for the all-age population.
• For the working age population, this is the equivalent of a need for approximately 10 accessible and adaptable homes required per year to 2040.

This indicates that there is an ongoing need for housing adapted to both M4(2) and M4(3) standards which is addressed through the current approach of the council which has an ongoing planning policy for 25% of homes on new housing developments over 15 dwellings to be built to M4(2) standards.

Supported housing for people at risk of or recovering from homelessness

Domestic abuse

Campbell Tickell identifies that:

• Allowing for turnover based on the length of stay an additional 61 units of safe accommodation is required.
• Although there is a substantial quantity of floating support available, and specialist domestic abuse support, the demand analysis found that there remains a shortfall of floating support 20 to 35 units.

Based on analysis of Campbell Tickell's proposals, taking account of existing supported accommodation, it is considered that 26 units of additional supported housing are required (2023).

Homelessness and multiple complex needs

Campbell Tickell identifies that 20 units of Housing First and potentially 95 units of supported housing are estimated to be required for this pathway. Some of the supported accommodation needs to be provided for more than 12 months and some individuals will need intensive housing floating support when they move on.

Based on analysis of Campbell Tickell's proposals, taking account of existing supported accommodation, it is considered that 35 units of additional supported housing are required (2023).

Young People

Campbell Tickell's assessment is that there is an outstanding need for 76 bedspaces (plus taster flats) per year across a range of settings, and five additional units funded by Children's Services for 16/17-year-old looked after children.

It is proposed that this need is reflected in a requirement for 81 bedspaces per year, split into a mix of high, medium and low settings for support.

Based on analysis of Campbell Tickell's proposals, taking account of existing supported accommodation, it is considered that 38 units of additional supported accommodation are required (2023).

Other identified needs for supported, accessible and other types of housing

People who have served in HM armed forces/adult former asylum seekers

Gateshead Council's Homelessness Review (2021) identified that there were 1,283 households with one or more support needs who were owed a homelessness duty during 2019 to 2020 and 794 households who did not have any support needs, or their support needs were unknown. This indicates that approximately 62% of those who were owed a duty had support needs.

A minority of these households were identified as having support needs linked to 'served in HM armed forces' and 'former asylum seeker'.

In 2021 to 2022 the evidence regarding these cohorts in relation to households owed a homelessness duty by support needs was:

• Former asylum seeker: 71 households
• People who have served in HM armed forces: 17 households.

Note that Gateshead Council do not accommodate asylum seekers; these people are accommodated through a separate contact between the Home Office and Mears.

There is no recognised model for estimating the supported housing needs of these cohorts. It is assumed that the majority of these households' primary need is for mainstream housing with their support needs addressed, where appropriate, through floating support for housing related needs and/or other interventions. There is evidence that some single adult former asylum seekers need to access supported housing.

If it is assumed that approximately 10% to 20% of these cohorts required supported housing before a move to independent housing this would suggest a need for supported housing of approximately 10 to approximately 18 units per annum. It is assumed that these needs could be met through existing supported housing provision for people who are or have experienced homelessness or through the planned commissioning of additional supported housing capacity for people who have experienced homelessness.

This suggests that there is no net additional need for supported housing for these cohorts but that existing or new supported housing services need to be sensitive to the specific support needs of former asylum seekers and/or people who have previously served in HM armed forces.

Large households seeking housing

There is evidence of larger families in housing need who require larger properties in order to accommodate their households. There is evidence that some of these households are asylum seekers.

These households area defined as requiring a home with 5+ bedrooms to accommodate their family.

Based on evidence from the council in relation to households seeking housing where the size of the households is 6 persons or larger, there are approximately 325 households seeking a 'large property' in order to accommodate their family.

The majority of these households are experiencing overcrowding issues and, for some, medical needs, rather than identified support needs.

The primary identified need amongst these households is for larger family homes for affordable rent.

Children and young people

There is evidence of need for accessible and adapted homes amongst households with a disabled child.

There have been 91 Disabled Facilities Grant (DFG) awards made to children aged 17 year and under in the last three years.

There are currently 15 children on the waiting list for DFGs and 63 children awaiting adaptations to homes.

This evidence suggests that there is a need for approximately 30 home adaptations per annum for children under 17 years with a disability from 2023 to 2024.

In relation to children placed out of borough, evidence from Children's Services indicates that amongst children aged 0 to 18 years over the period 2020 to 2021 to 2022 to 2023 there are on average 14 children placed out of borough in children's homes or residential care homes, where a locally based alternative would be desirable.

This evidence indicates that there is a potential need for additional children's home/residential care provision capacity of approximately 14 units required in Gateshead in 2023 to 2024 (there are currently proposals for approximately 7 units in three properties).

In relation to 16 to 18 years olds, over the period 2020 to 2021 to 2022 to 2023 there are on average three young people placed out of borough where a locally based alternative would be desirable.

This evidence indicates that there is a potential need for 16 to 18 year olds who are looked after by the council for supported accommodation of approximately three to five units per annum from 2023 to 2024 in Gateshead. It is assumed that this need is part of the supported housing need identified at paragraphs 7.28 to 7.30.

Table 35. 55+ population projected to 2040 for Gateshead, and its North East comparator authorities.

Source: ONS 2021 census and ONS 2018-based Subnational Population Projections.

Table 36. Percentage change in the 55+ population projected to 2040 for Gateshead, and its North East comparator authorities.

Source: ONS 2021 census and ONS 2018-based Subnational Population Projections.

Gateshead's 55+ population is estimated to increase by approximately 7% by 2040, which is below the average growth in the equivalent population amongst comparator councils (approximately 11%) and lower than the growth in the overall 55+ population for England (approximately 20%).

Table 37. 65+ population projected to 2040 for Gateshead, and its North East comparator authorities.

Source: ONS 2021 census and ONS 2018-based Subnational Population Projections

Table 38. Percentage change in the 65+ population projected to 2040 for Gateshead, and its North East comparator authorities.

Source: ONS 2021 census and ONS 2018-based Subnational Population Projections.

Gateshead's 65+ population is estimated to increase by approximately 22% by 2040, which is below the average growth in the equivalent population amongst comparator councils (approximately 30%) and the overall 65+ population for England (approximately 36%).

Table 39. 75+ population projected to 2040 for Gateshead, and its North East comparator authorities.

Source: ONS 2021 census and ONS 2018-based Subnational Population Projections

Table 40. Percentage change in the 75+ population projected to 2040 for Gateshead, and its North East comparator authorities.

Gateshead's 75+ population is estimated to increase by approximately 38% by 2040, which is below the equivalent population growth amongst comparator councils (approximately 53%) and the growth in the overall 75+ population for England (approximately 50%).

The following figures provide an overview of the local authority boundary, the neighbourhood boundaries within Gateshead.

Figure 1. Map of Gateshead local authority boundary and neighbourhood boundaries.

Source: Neighbourhoods determined according to ward composition by Gateshead Council. Basemap source: Esri UK.

The following definitions of housing and care homes for older people apply to the following tables, where each older person's housing scheme and care home in Gateshead is presented, along with scheme / care home specific details:

Housing for Older People (HfOP): social sector sheltered and age-designated housing and private sector retirement housing:

• The most common types of Housing for Older People are:
  • Sheltered social housing: These schemes typically offer self-contained accommodation commonly available for social rent. They are usually supported by a part-time/visiting scheme manager and 24-hour emergency help via an alarm. There are often communal areas and some offer activities. Most accommodation is offered for rent, based on need, by local councils or housing associations.
  • Private sector retirement housing: This is typically similar to sheltered social housing, but it is usually built by private developers for market sale. Once all the properties have been sold, the scheme is sometimes run by a separate management company that employ the scheme manager and organise maintenance and other services.

Housing with care (HwC): (often referred to as 'extra care housing (opens new window)' when provided by housing associations and local authorities and 'assisted living' by private sector providers)

• Housing with care is designed for older people, some with higher levels of care and support needs. Residents live in self-contained homes. It typically has more communal facilities and offers access to onsite 24/7 care services, which includes assistance with meal preparation, washing and other daily duties. Often includes a 24/7 alarm system, presence of a scheme manager and a team of support staff.

Residential care home

• A residential setting where a number of older people live, usually in single rooms, and have access to on-site social care services. 24/7 onsite personal social care services include help with washing and dressing. Residential care homes do not consist of self-contained units.

Nursing care home:

• Similar to a residential care home, but additionally providing care from qualified nurses. There will always be 1 or more qualified nurses on duty to provide nursing care. These are sometimes called 'care homes with nursing'. The Care Quality Commission states that in addition (to a residential care home), "qualified nursing care is provided, to ensure that the full needs of the person using the service are met." Nursing care homes do not consist of self-contained units.

Table 41. Older person's Housing for Older People (HfOP) and Housing with Care (HwC) schemes and associated information, by ward and neighbourhood.

Source: Elderly Accommodation Counsel

The map below shows the distribution of provision for housing schemes for older people in Gateshead in the five neighbourhood areas.

Figure 2. Map showing existing older person's housing schemes: Housing for Older People (HfOP) and Housing with Care (HwC) in Gateshead.

Source: Elderly Accommodation Counsel. Basemap source: Esri UK.

Estimated need for housing for older people and housing with care are shown by locality.

Table 42. Housing for Older People, projected net need (homes) to 2040, disaggregated by neighbourhood and tenure.

Figures may not sum due to rounding

Table 43. Housing with Care (HwC), projected net need (homes) to 2040, disaggregated by neighbourhood and tenure.

NB. Figures may not sum due to rounding