Specialist and Supported Housing Needs Assessment
Annex 1: demographic projections for 55_, 65+ and 75+ population
Table 35. 55+ population projected to 2040 for Gateshead, and its North East comparator authorities.
2023 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | |
Gateshead | 67,720 | 70,305 | 71,405 | 71,569 | 72,515 |
County Durham | 191,473 | 201,391 | 208,198 | 209,981 | 213,214 |
Darlington | 38,076 | 40,420 | 42,150 | 42,888 | 43,703 |
Hartlepool | 33,012 | 34,193 | 35,171 | 35,435 | 36,087 |
Middlesbrough | 42,912 | 44,404 | 45,089 | 44,899 | 45,183 |
Newcastle upon Tyne | 78,806 | 82,298 | 84,287 | 85,116 | 86,629 |
North Tyneside | 73,629 | 77,250 | 81,185 | 83,744 | 86,541 |
Northumberland | 136,466 | 144,205 | 150,898 | 154,016 | 157,130 |
Redcar and Cleveland | 53,601 | 56,255 | 58,015 | 58,357 | 59,162 |
South Tyneside | 53,822 | 56,015 | 57,398 | 57,776 | 58,685 |
Stockton-on-Tees | 65,924 | 69,599 | 72,199 | 73,365 | 75,232 |
Sunderland | 97,100 | 100,611 | 102,480 | 101,720 | 101,553 |
Comparator average | 77,712 | 81,412 | 84,040 | 84,905 | 86,303 |
England | 18,060,451 | 19,053,023 | 20,139,116 | 20,884,346 | 21,718,208 |
Source: ONS 2021 census and ONS 2018-based Subnational Population Projections.
Table 36. Percentage change in the 55+ population projected to 2040 for Gateshead, and its North East comparator authorities.
Local Authority | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
Gateshead | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% |
County Durham | 5.2% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 11.4% |
Darlington | 6.2% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 14.8% |
Hartlepool | 3.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.3% |
Middlesbrough | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% |
Newcastle upon Tyne | 4.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.9% |
North Tyneside | 4.9% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 17.5% |
Northumberland | 5.7% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 15.1% |
Redcar and Cleveland | 5.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.4% |
South Tyneside | 4.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.0% |
Stockton-on-Tees | 5.6% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 14.1% |
Sunderland | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% |
Comparator average | 4.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 11.1% |
England | 5.5% | 11.5% | 15.6% | 20.3% |
Source: ONS 2021 census and ONS 2018-based Subnational Population Projections.
Gateshead's 55+ population is estimated to increase by approximately 7% by 2040, which is below the average growth in the equivalent population amongst comparator councils (approximately 11%) and lower than the growth in the overall 55+ population for England (approximately 20%).
Table 37. 65+ population projected to 2040 for Gateshead, and its North East comparator authorities.
Local Authority | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
Gateshead | 40,862 | 43,549 | 46,950 | 49,336 | 49,991 |
County Durham | 115,162 | 124,016 | 136,520 | 146,521 | 149,838 |
Darlington | 22,946 | 25,081 | 27,831 | 30,041 | 31,065 |
Hartlepool | 18,914 | 20,669 | 22,953 | 24,549 | 25,040 |
Middlesbrough | 25,087 | 26,841 | 29,344 | 30,738 | 31,041 |
Newcastle upon Tyne | 46,077 | 49,855 | 54,031 | 56,794 | 58,041 |
North Tyneside | 44,574 | 47,880 | 53,288 | 57,284 | 59,509 |
Northumberland | 85,276 | 93,142 | 103,842 | 111,315 | 114,553 |
Redcar and Cleveland | 32,929 | 35,513 | 39,244 | 42,048 | 42,906 |
South Tyneside | 32,073 | 34,439 | 38,052 | 40,573 | 41,108 |
Stockton-on-Tees | 38,901 | 42,302 | 46,972 | 50,584 | 51,930 |
Sunderland | 58,319 | 62,106 | 67,581 | 71,029 | 71,516 |
Comparator average | 46,760 | 50,450 | 55,551 | 59,234 | 60,545 |
England | 10,759,722 | 11,568,979 | 12,829,672 | 13,959,826 | 14,678,859 |
Source: ONS 2021 census and ONS 2018-based Subnational Population Projections
Table 38. Percentage change in the 65+ population projected to 2040 for Gateshead, and its North East comparator authorities.
Local Authority | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
Gateshead | 6.6% | 14.9% | 20.7% | 22.3% |
County Durham | 7.7% | 18.5% | 27.2% | 30.1% |
Darlington | 9.3% | 21.3% | 30.9% | 35.4% |
Hartlepool | 9.3% | 21.4% | 29.8% | 32.4% |
Middlesbrough | 7.0% | 17.0% | 22.5% | 23.7% |
Newcastle upon Tyne | 8.2% | 17.3% | 23.3% | 26.0% |
North Tyneside | 7.4% | 19.5% | 28.5% | 33.5% |
Northumberland | 9.2% | 21.8% | 30.5% | 34.3% |
Redcar and Cleveland | 7.8% | 19.2% | 27.7% | 30.3% |
South Tyneside | 7.4% | 18.6% | 26.5% | 28.2% |
Stockton-on-Tees | 8.7% | 20.7% | 30.0% | 33.5% |
Sunderland | 6.5% | 15.9% | 21.8% | 22.6% |
Comparator average | 7.9% | 18.8% | 26.7% | 29.5% |
England | 7.5% | 19.2% | 29.7% | 36.4% |
Source: ONS 2021 census and ONS 2018-based Subnational Population Projections.
Gateshead's 65+ population is estimated to increase by approximately 22% by 2040, which is below the average growth in the equivalent population amongst comparator councils (approximately 30%) and the overall 65+ population for England (approximately 36%).
Table 39. 75+ population projected to 2040 for Gateshead, and its North East comparator authorities.
Local Authority | 2023 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
Gateshead | 19,891 | 22,097 | 23,062 | 24,953 | 27,493 |
County Durham | 54,312 | 61,886 | 67,249 | 73,554 | 82,064 |
Darlington | 11,033 | 12,817 | 13,992 | 15,468 | 17,365 |
Hartlepool | 8,500 | 9,895 | 10,761 | 12,004 | 13,623 |
Middlesbrough | 11,268 | 12,503 | 13,658 | 15,265 | 16,993 |
Newcastle upon Tyne | 21,695 | 24,740 | 26,637 | 29,587 | 32,597 |
North Tyneside | 20,742 | 23,310 | 25,930 | 29,001 | 32,593 |
Northumberland | 40,146 | 46,446 | 51,869 | 58,084 | 65,001 |
Redcar and Cleveland | 15,913 | 17,905 | 19,238 | 21,147 | 23,721 |
South Tyneside | 14,779 | 16,463 | 17,987 | 20,230 | 22,689 |
Stockton-on-Tees | 17,662 | 20,247 | 22,327 | 25,021 | 28,165 |
Sunderland | 26,721 | 29,633 | 32,257 | 35,762 | 39,361 |
Comparator average | 21,889 | 24,829 | 27,081 | 30,006 | 33,472 |
England | 5,279,268 | 5,934,025 | 7,246,606 | 9,692,495 | 14,554,364 |
Source: ONS 2021 census and ONS 2018-based Subnational Population Projections
Table 40. Percentage change in the 75+ population projected to 2040 for Gateshead, and its North East comparator authorities.
Local Authority | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
Gateshead | 11.1% | 15.9% | 25.4% | 38.2% |
County Durham | 13.9% | 23.8% | 35.4% | 51.1% |
Darlington | 16.2% | 26.8% | 40.2% | 57.4% |
Hartlepool | 16.4% | 26.6% | 41.2% | 60.3% |
Middlesbrough | 11.0% | 21.2% | 35.5% | 50.8% |
Newcastle upon Tyne | 14.0% | 22.8% | 36.4% | 50.3% |
North Tyneside | 12.4% | 25.0% | 39.8% | 57.1% |
Northumberland | 15.7% | 29.2% | 44.7% | 61.9% |
Redcar and Cleveland | 12.5% | 20.9% | 32.9% | 49.1% |
South Tyneside | 11.4% | 21.7% | 36.9% | 53.5% |
Stockton-on-Tees | 14.6% | 26.4% | 41.7% | 59.5% |
Sunderland | 10.9% | 20.7% | 33.8% | 47.3% |
Comparator average | 13.4% | 23.7% | 37.1% | 52.9% |
England | 12.4% | 22.1% | 33.8% | 50.2% |
Gateshead's 75+ population is estimated to increase by approximately 38% by 2040, which is below the equivalent population growth amongst comparator councils (approximately 53%) and the growth in the overall 75+ population for England (approximately 50%).
