Adult Care and Housing Specialist Housing Addendum to the Market Position Statement June 2024

Figure 2a below shows the current and projected numbers of people in age groups between 0 to 64, based on the latest available NOMIS forecasts.

Notable changes forecast for the period between 2025 and 2043 shown in figure 2a are:

• • A 10.6% fall in the numbers of people aged 50 to 64 (4,153 fewer people) over the medium term to 2035, which then moderates to a 5.9% fall by 2043
• The 25 to 49 age group is the only one expected to grow and even then by just 1.0% by 2043 

While the forecasts show reductions for three of the age groups over the 2025 - 2043 period, the largest reduction is forecast to be in the number of people aged 50 to 64. This group exhibits the greatest variation due to it no longer including the peak population numbers of the Baby Boomer generation (born between 1945 and 1964).

Figure 2b below shows the forecast changes among the population aged 65 and over between 2025 and 2043.

Notable changes forecast for the period between 2025 and 2043 shown in figure B1b are:

• A 13.9% increase in the numbers of people aged 65 and over (5,900 more)
• A 29.8% increase in the numbers of people aged 75 and over (6,327 more)
• A 42.8% increase in the numbers of people aged 85 and over (2,525 more)

Figure 2b shows large increases among all of the older age groups which will generate demand for new and additional provision, extending across specialist forms of housing such as Extra Care, beds in registered Care and Nursing homes, and services to support people in later life.

The local demand for services will be affected by both the number of older people in any given ward & the local age distribution, the five wards with the greatest numbers of people aged 65 and older at the time of the 2021 census were:

1. Whickham South and Sunniside - 2,354 people, 28.8% of the ward population
2. Winlaton and High Spen - 2,259 people, 26.5% of the ward population
3. Whickham North - 1,973 people, 25.5% of the ward population
4. Chopwell and Rowlands GIll - 2,197 people, 24.9% of the ward population
5. Wardley and Leam Lane - 1,882 people, 24.0% of the ward population